Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]
Nov 11

This market is about the federal case against Trump, which is generally considered to be the most serious of his legal troubles.

Trump is charged with one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States, one count of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, one count of obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and one count of conspiracy against rights.

As of market creation, other markets on Manifold currently expect that the trial is likely to begin before the election and that conviction is much more likely than acquittal.

If Trump is not convicted (found guilty or pleads guilty) on any of the charges in his January 6th case before election day this market resolves N/A. If he is convicted, then this market resolves Yes he is wins the presidential election and No if he does not win the presidential election.

The results of any of Trump's other cases are not relevant to this market's resolution, only the January 6th case. You can find more information on the January 6th dashboard.

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@jacksonpolack I've a limit order at 44% 5k NO, if you are interested. But 39% currently is too low with Trump sitting at 49% in the main market. [I'd restock at 44% with 5k.] I won't make an offer below 44% as off right now, might change in the future.

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 39% order

Just an offer

bought Ṁ3,250 YES

@Lion accepted

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 39% order

@Gen put another 5k in

bought Ṁ3,500 YES from 39% to 40%
opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 44% order

@Gen Now let's hope Trump will be convicted otherwise it's pretty pointless

opened aṀ5,000 YES at 34% order


Let's go through some of the arguments to buy Yes or No here:

Arguments for Trump being more likely to lose if convicted:

Poll points to deep trouble for Trump if he gets convicted - Niall Stanage (The Hill)

A new poll suggests the point could be proven in dramatic fashion if any of the four criminal trials he is facing results in a conviction.

The poll, released Wednesday from Bloomberg and Morning Consult, found that 53 percent of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if he were convicted of a criminal offense. A slightly higher share, 55 percent, say they would reach that conclusion if he were sentenced to prison.

If those figures are accurate, they could easily decide the election, given how close Trump’s two elections so far, in 2016 and 2020, have been.

How a Trump conviction changes the 2024 race in our latest poll - Mark Murray (NBC News)

The newest national NBC News poll shows former President Donald Trump leading current President Joe Biden by 5 points among registered voters, 47%-42%, in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

But when the survey’s final question re-asks voters what their ballot choice would be if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, Biden narrowly pulls ahead of Trump, 45%-43%.

Some of the most pronounced shifts come among voters who backed Biden strongly in 2020, but among whom he is struggling now as president — younger voters, Latinos and independents.

Arguments for Trump still being about as likely to win even if convicted:

Why a Trump conviction might not save Biden’s reelection - Steven Shepard (POLITICO)

The evidence so far suggests the race might shift only slightly, by a few points. That could be important in another close election, but it’s not the kind of Trump collapse that Democrats may hope for — or Biden may need if his numbers don’t improve.


Take last week’s Wall Street Journal poll. Trump led Biden by 4 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, 47 percent to 43 percent. The race shifted only slightly, to a 1-point Biden lead, among respondents who were also asked what they would do if Trump were convicted in either of the two federal cases, either for unlawfully possessing classified documents or conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Since only about half of the respondents were asked about a hypothetical Trump conviction, the two results aren’t directly comparable. But they suggest a massive swing against Trump is unlikely. And the margins are small: With just a 1-point lead in a hypothetical Trump conviction scenario, Democrats can’t rely on a small post-conviction swing tipping the race.

I've become fairly skeptical that any of the Trump cases really matter that much anymore - JGalt (top Metaculus Forecaster)

At this point, I'm not sure how many people there really are out there who haven't already made up their minds about what they think of January 6 and efforts to obstruct/overturn the election results, and the extent to which they hold Trump personally responsible for any of it; and if they do hold him responsible, whether they're prepared to forgive him, or otherwise just move on from it.


If he is convicted in the D.C. case before the election, it will probably be pretty late in the game, in the August-October timeframe. At that late stage, I'm not sure many people will change their vote based on an outcome that by then will probably be very widely expected. It just doesn't feel very realistic to me that there's a significant number of voters out there who would change their minds that late in the game based on an unsurprising decision made by a jury in an ultra-blue jurisdiction when the basic facts of the case have already been discussed so intensely in the media over the last several years; and when voters will have already had around 9 years of near-constant media coverage of Trump with which to form an opinion of him as a person and a political candidate.

I think this is a very important question if Trump's odds can really swing double digits on conviction in this case. I've subsidized this market accordingly.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Other markets ask about this question but for any crime/felony, not just the January 6th trial. You can find them here:

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