Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern on April 1, 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States has granted a petition for a writ of certiorari for Donald Trump to appeal the issue of presidential immunity, or otherwise agreed to hear Trump's appeal on the matter. The question will resolve as No if that has not happened, including if the Supreme Court is still considering at that time whether to grant the writ of cert, or if no petition has been filed; or if the Supreme Court denies Trump cert on this matter.
This question only requires that the Supreme Court issue a writ of cert, or to agree to hear the appeal. There is no requirement that the appeal actually be heard or any briefing in the case be submitted before April 1.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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@Pykess Some commentary from the Metaculus creator that traders might find useful:
I edited the resolution criteria to specifically include a No resolution if the Supreme Court denies cert on this matter.
As to the timeline, a significant point of uncertainty is how long the Supreme Court will stay the mandate for (if at all) before Trump has to file his cert petition. The implications are discussed at length in the Just Security article linked to at the bottom of the background section; but essentially, if they grant an indefinite stay, Trump could take up to 90 days to even file the petition; but if they give him a stay for only a short period of time, he'll have to file his petition in the near future. Apparently it's also possible that they could treat the application for a stay itself as a cert petition, in which case they could decide whether to grant cert very soon.
I'm not too confident how they'll handle it, so April 1 seemed like a reasonable date; I think you could set a shorter timescale, but the shorter the question timescale, the more I think the question becomes about how long of a stay (if any) they grant Trump rather than about whether they'll actually grant or deny cert.