A related, highly subsidized market:

A counterargument to conviction correlation, for your consideration:

I think a conviction will be very bad for Trump, but I'm also hesitant to fully endorse these conditional odds. Will you all really buy the general election markets down to 30% Trump if he seems likely to be convicted?

@Joshua reading this reminded me of a 538 analysis on polling as the indictments came out: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-indictments-favorability-primary-polls/ interestingly, this analysis might suggest that a conviction in the Jan 6th case would indeed support correlation, even moreso if it's closer to the election because it removes the ability to suspend disbelief?

@Spice_N_Wolf Oh great point, the precedent of Trump's numbers falling after his indictments is probably a lot more meaningful than the handful of hypothetical polls about conviction.

@Joshua I think conviction in the J6 trial would be a liability for him, and the comment is really overestimating how closely the average person is following all this stuff. The outcome may be widely expected among people on sites like Manifold and Metaculus, but the average voter isn't thinking things like, "Trump will probably be convicted in D.C. because 92% of people there voted for Biden". And I don't think it's true that everyone has already made up their minds about all the issues related to J6. I would expect politically disengaged voters who aren't yet sure who they're going to vote for or whether they even want to vote to be the exact type of people who wouldn't have made up their minds about this. Or at least the type of people who haven't made up their minds about exactly how bad it is.

Also, I don't think Trump's gains after his indictments are any evidence that a conviction would help him. Indictments helped in a primary of Republican voters, not the general election.

@Joshua "Energizing his base" is irrelevant. They'll vote for him even if he kills and eats a baby on live TV. It's the "undecided" voters who matter.

I assume convicted means after all means of appeal were used or respective deadlines weren’t used. So a Jury/Judge finding him guilty, but not in the court of last resort would not count?

@Gideon37 The fine print in the original ACX 2024 question on felony conviction is:

Fine Print

• It resolves as Yes upon conviction by any US court, the outcome of later appeals or legal proceedings is immaterial.

• Any felony conviction is sufficient, it need to not be related to an existing indictment.

• This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required.

Previously:

@Joshua Arb but for any crime: