Will SCOTUS grant President Trump's request to halt a ruling against his presidential immunity claims, before March?
resolved Feb 28
SCOTUS grants Trump's requested stay before March 1st
SCOTUS denies Trump's requested stay before March 1st
SCOTUS announces no decision on Trump's requested stay before March 1st

On the 13th, the Supreme Court asked Jack Smith to respond to Trump's request to stay his Jan 6th case. They gave him one week to respond, but he responded the next day arguing for them to deny it. Now, a week has passed and we are waiting on SCOTUS to say something.

This market resolves based on whether SCOTUS grants the stay, denies the stay, or announces no decision before March 1st. The "other" option represents unknown unknowns, and should resolve "no" in most cases.

See here for more context:

For the second time this year, the Supreme Court could hear oral arguments on a relatively untested area of constitutional law as it relates to former President Donald Trump and set a landmark precedent that could affect the 2024 presidential race.

Chief Justice John Roberts showed interest on Feb. 13 in reviewing former President Donald Trump’s request the prior day to halt a ruling against his presidential immunity claims in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.

Special counsel Jack Smith responded on Feb. 14, telling the court it should deny President Trump’s request.

Earlier this month, three D.C. Circuit judges rejected President Trump’s claim that the doctrine of presidential immunity shielded him from Mr. Smith’s prosecution related to the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

[Disclaimer: These rules should be considered to be in Draft Form until this disclaimer has been edited out of the description. The exact resolution criteria may be updated to better reflect the spirit of the question with the correct legal terminology. Please leave a comment below if you have any suggestions.]

You can find more information on the January 6th case at the following pages:

The Manifold January 6th Dashboard

Wikipedia Article

NYT Summary and Annotated Indictment

NPR Summary

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Congratulations to @1941159478 for making a cool 5k profit on a 50 mana bet! Note to self: with complex legal markets, expect the unexpected and buy OTHER!

@mint Thanks! I am happy to confirm that indeed this windfall was not the result of any legal insight whatsoever and literally just that heuristic.

Well, I included the "other" option exactly because I'm not a lawyer and questions like this often have hidden outcomes that the question writer isn't aware of.

This is complicated, but I'm leaning towards resolving to "other".

SCOTUS grants Trump's requested stay before March 1st
bought Ṁ50 SCOTUS grants Trump'... NO

From the ruling: "The application for a stay is dismissed as moot." I'm no legal scholar, but I don't think this can resolve as YES.

bought Ṁ1,000 Other YES

@mint Oh no, I've played myself

@Joshua I'm just going to close this now because this could be messy, but I think Mint is right.

@mint So does this mean they will hear an appeal but the case can also move forward simultaneously in parallel?

@BTE No, it seems like they rejected it but granted a cert petition that Trump never actually filed which ultimately has the effect of a stay

@BTE they are definitely hearing the appeal, so the below market will resolve YES, but that seems distinctly different than granting the requested stay, which is why it had such long odds.

@Joshua Nevermind, I see the expedited hearing schedule. The stay request was for him to be able to continue appealing to the full appellate court which would have taken longer. That was denied and instead they are taking the case now at request of Special Counsel. This looks like it resolves to denied his request for stay.

@mint Imo “Trump’s requested stay” in the responses is significant because the request that was ultimately granted was not filed by him. While the one he requested was in fact denied.

@MarkHamill Jack Smith requested it?

bought Ṁ100 SCOTUS announces no ... YES

Odds seemed low for only two days left.

Denial should be time decaying. Today is the last conference day of the month, meaning no ruling on Monday means no ruling in Feb. https://www.supremecourt.gov/

Scroll down to the calendar.

@MarkHamill Yeah, they seem to be in no hurry....

@Joshua They are technically moving at light speed for SCOTUS.


Adding more subsidy


My understanding is that if SCOTUS denies the stay, then we are on a fast-track to Trump going to trial and possibly getting convicted. If they grant it, then it could be weeks or months more of delays.

Given that markets think Trump's chances of winning drop significantly if he's convicted, this is a very important question.


@BTE curious as to your thoughts on this, I know you follow Trump's cases closely.


Robert’s actually did not express any such intentions or interest. All he did was allow Jack Smith to brief in response and since like every court who heard this case has flatly rejected Trump’s ridiculous claims this case is done.

bought Ṁ10 SCOTUS grants Trump'... NO

@Joshua It takes 5 votes for the court to grant certiorari I believe. Only 4 to accept the special council brief last week before deciding. Where my lawyers at??

@BTE What's the turnaround on this kind of thing though? It seems like it's moving fast to me, but I also wouldn't be shocked if we were still sitting here waiting for them to make a decision next month. You think they'll deny this week?

@Joshua I also found some arb:

@BTE Didn't notice this market cited the Epoch Times until you pointed that out. Why is Manifold citing a source like that?


@Joshua The Appellate court actually attached an accelerated deadline to Trump’s appeal so you are right it is moving fast, unless you consider the normal way this is supposed to happen is this appeal takes place after the trial, not before. This is truly unprecedented because we treat presidents specially apparently. Makes sense though. So if Trump loses he has only shortened the time between his conviction and final sentencing by burning this bullet, the only one he has if there is no prosecutor misconduct. Y

@PlasmaBallin I found the Epoch's summary helpful, but if there's another source y'all recommend I can edit it in.

@Joshua I think Trump willl be denied by the end of the week.

@Joshua I would be surprised if it took the entire week actually.

@BTE Yeah I get the sense it could happen any day

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