Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, any court in the United States convicts Donald Trump of committing a felony.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
Related questions
https://www.vox.com/politics/24055503/trump-trials-fani-willis-jack-smith-alvin-bragg
They didn't even cite manifold!
Take a look at the question like this in the ACX 2023 contest:
On Metaculus, it sat at 50-60 for months, then spiked based on news just before resolving yes.
Then look at Manifold:
At first glance, it seems like we did better. We stayed more like 60-70 for most of the market, then spiked based on news just before resolving yes.
But did Manifold do better as a whole? Look at the positions/profit in that market:
You see how spiky our graph was? It seems that was because an awful lot of people thought the price should have been lower! Really, it seems like just @BTE and @jack kept buying the market up while everyone else kept buying it down. Without those two users, I expect the manifold market would have settled into the same 50%-60% that Metaculus was at. I think that 50%-60% zone is basically everyone saying "I dunno, probably? I'm not a Lawyer."
I'm also not a Lawyer, but I know that if any random guy was up against all the charges Trump was up against, this market would probably be at like 90%+
@Joshua I got the highest profit on that market and the top score on the Metaculus question also. I think the main difference is that I had enough mana at the time and I and a sufficiently horrible trader that I just wouldn’t let it get any lower than 60 percent at any point. Had I not been trading I actually think it would have been metaculus that was higher because I think there was actually significantly more NO bets until the very end. There is a comment in that market from @NicoDelon to the effect that I was artificially inflating and he was probably right.
@Joshua At one point I think I was close to 180k mana position. Those spikes down in the months before resolving is me selling haha. I am so bad at trading!