AI progress🤖

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?48% chance

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?35% chance

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?53% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?40% chance

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Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?69% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?78% chance

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?71% chance

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 202772% chance

How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?

50%

0

26%

1-2

19%

3-5

3%

6-10

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In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?71% chance

Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?59% chance

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026?37% chance

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 50M views before 2025?39% chance

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?35% chance

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?32% chance

Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 202538% chance

Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025.41% chance

Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 202520% chance

Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?96% chance

Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 202520% chance