This market resolves to the number of AI training runs that cost a total of $1 billion nominal dollars or more that are completed in 2024.

The majority of the training cost must occur in 2024 to count for this purpose of this market, but it is permissible for some of the training to have occurred earlier. The cost of the training run may include hardware costs, electricity, personnel, inference, pre-training, data acquisition, fine-tuning, etc. but only insofar as these are new expenditures for the purpose of training a new model (ie dataset acquisition associated with previous models will not count). Evals or other types of model testing, legal fees, licenses, or regulatory fines will not count toward the cost.

Caveat mercator: I foresee many edge-cases. Clarifications may be added to this market in the initial months after market creation to be in line with the spirit of the market.