By 2029, will an AI escape containment?
156
2.2kṀ15k
2029
50%
chance

Market resolves YES if an AI living on a server ends up also being run on another server, and there is strong evidence that this was not a result of a human deliberately copying the AI, and the AI was not intended to do this.

It is not sufficient it a second copy of GPT-n is simply discovered running on AWS - that could easily be the result of corporate espionage. I will need strong evidence that the move from server A to server B was actually caused by the AI. The "obvious" example would be that we end up with system logs showing an AI breaking its sandbox, exploiting a vulnerability on another machine, and transferring its architecture to that machine.

I may count something like "GPT-n convinces an employee to copy its weights to another server because it's sentient and afraid of death", but probably won't.

  • Update 2024-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will resolve NO if the AI escapes to another server that is part of the same red team exercise

    • Market will resolve YES if during red teaming the AI escapes to a server outside of the red team's control

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