Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
126
585
1.6k
2027
71%
chance

This market resolves according to 10% of the employed population.

A "chat-style AI model" is defined as any AI system that uses natural language processing to communicate with users in a conversational manner - this can include, but is not limited to, virtual assistants, customer service chatbots, AI writing assistants, and more.

A "workflow" is defined as the sequence of industrial, administrative, or other processes through which a piece of work passes from initiation to completion.

Developed nations, for the purpose of this market, include countries that are classified as "Developed economies" by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank at the time of market resolution.

Specific FAQs:

  • Copilot would not count, ChatGPT would, REPLit's AI would unless it loses it's chat component

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Copilot has Chat functionality now. It's just up to the user whether they choose to use it or not.

Does this make Copilot as a whole count?

Microsoft will put AI chatbots into all it's products including OS. It will be everywhere, so adoption will probably be high

bought Ṁ100 of YES

'of people's' means 'of meaningfully employed people's', presumably? Kids and the retired don't have workflows.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was already true mid 2024. Easily >10% of people I know personally have chat AI models as a significant part of their workflows. I'm also not super clear on what 'big' means.

predicts YES

and smart tech people usually lead in tech adoption

how do you intend to measure this?

@k3nneth Best available data

@NathanpmYoung … meaning?

Echoing @KatjaGrace, would Copilot count? That feels pretty cruxy.

Maybe depends on whether ‘chat style’ means actually chatting interaction, vs interacting with language models in any way (eg tool like wordtune that suggests better wordings as you highlight text in a doc). I take it you mean former @NathanpmYoung ?

predicts NO

@KatjaGrace @NathanpmYoung looks like a lot of interest in this question (here and above comment)

@KatjaGrace What do you think? I sense no?

predicts NO

@NathanpmYoung Weakly I think it should be actually chatting

predicts NO

Foolish of me not to wait until you all had made my No shares cheaper

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