I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.
Related questions
Character.ai has an estimated 2M WAU in the US right now. Only some fraction of that is using it romantically, but it's a very meaningfully non-zero fraction based on user reviews. Replika has ~160k WAU in the US and is one of the largest AI romantic companions, though I'm sure some portion of that user base falls off and doesn't really consider them a true romantic companion.
This seems like a steal at 60% unless we see some meaningful backlash to AI companions for whatever reason.
@WhateverWhoCares I don't think any significant part of that user base would satisfy this market. I would guess that most of that user base understands themselves (correctly) to be doing something more like playing a video game than having a romantic relationship.
I have the question of what point on the scale this market resolves in 'they get off to it' to 'they treat it as their actual girlfriend' that this is going for. Romantic companion seems to imply nearer to the latter end?
On the latter end I think it is pretty unlikely, but the former end seems probable. Like you have people mentioning Replika, but 1) I presume most aren't using it that often 2) how much do they consider their AI to be a companion versus a fun tool to play with.
(Like for stuff like character.ai, I think it would be incorrect to characterize many of the people using it as considering themselves as friends with the AI characters. Though this is different because it does have more of a culture of 'swap between different characters')
Just how aware of this do the users need to be?
Not yet AI powered, as of this article, but obviously will be if it isn't yet.
https://arstechnica.com/culture/2023/05/this-is-catfishing-on-an-industrial-scale/
AI they consider a romantic companion?
The people consider the AI a romantic companion, which should rule out catfishing attempts
Some qualitative comparisons for what 350,000 per week feels like:
At least 3X
The weekly visitors (from around the world, not just americans) to Yellowstone National park.
The number of Americans who donate blood
The number of dogs that are adopted per week in the US
The number of Americans attending Opera per week (unsure)
At least 10X
The number of weekly marriages in the US
The number of people called up for jury duty in the US
At least 100X
The number of electric vehicles sold per week in the US
The number of Americans who run a marathon
The number of Americans who file for a bankruptcy
The number of LASIK eye surgery in the US
The number of tattoos removed per week in the US
The number of organ transplants per week in the US
I'm not saying this won't happen, adoption for some forms of media are far easier than most of the things I mentioned as examples. Some of them add up over each week, while this question asks for just 350,000 people to talk at least weekly, I know. However, romantic companion is far different from normal forms of media consumption and involves an experience of bonding that while fine in itself, is not something I expect over 350,000+ Americans per week to normalize in the next few years with everything else going on.
@firstuserhere it depends on how you define romantic partner. I could see AI driven porn adjacent services easily blow through those numbers
@Odoacre yep. I think that's the bigger question, here. For loose enough definitions I think it's obviously going to happen, but where we draw the border for what "counts" is doing to be hard.
@osmarks this is very unlikely for the <15 and >65 population tho. Also for all the people already in relationships.
@kottsiek "Also for all the people already in relationships." Romance novels and pornographic videos are already-existing artifical stimuli that substitute (poorly) for human connection, and consumption of both is common among people already in relationships. The only questions here are is whether AI takes over this space or whether AI simulacra of reality are regulated.
@brp people do not usually think of porn videos as their "romantic companion" even if they occasionally get off to them.
@Kormann a big question I have is whether this can resolve instantaneously or we have to wait til 2028 @ScottAlexander
@StrayClimb The question is worded as referring to events in 2028. If such AI applications get banned in 2027, the question as stated will likely resolve NO. It is quite possible the number in question peaks before 2030 if mainstream society starts fighting addictive AI.
I think much of the uncertainty is in what extent of companionship is required to be "a romantic companion." Most current Replika users probably aren't nearly as close to the AI as they would be to a human they say as a boyfriend, girlfriend, or other formal label—such as in terms of what they would give up to stay with that individual.