I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.
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I have the question of what point on the scale this market resolves in 'they get off to it' to 'they treat it as their actual girlfriend' that this is going for. Romantic companion seems to imply nearer to the latter end?
On the latter end I think it is pretty unlikely, but the former end seems probable. Like you have people mentioning Replika, but 1) I presume most aren't using it that often 2) how much do they consider their AI to be a companion versus a fun tool to play with.
(Like for stuff like character.ai, I think it would be incorrect to characterize many of the people using it as considering themselves as friends with the AI characters. Though this is different because it does have more of a culture of 'swap between different characters')
The fact that this is at roughly the same probability as the "full-length film by 2028" question is insane to me.
Just how aware of this do the users need to be?
Not yet AI powered, as of this article, but obviously will be if it isn't yet.
https://arstechnica.com/culture/2023/05/this-is-catfishing-on-an-industrial-scale/
AI they consider a romantic companion?
The people consider the AI a romantic companion, which should rule out catfishing attempts
Some qualitative comparisons for what 350,000 per week feels like:
At least 3X
The weekly visitors (from around the world, not just americans) to Yellowstone National park.
The number of Americans who donate blood
The number of dogs that are adopted per week in the US
The number of Americans attending Opera per week (unsure)
At least 10X
The number of weekly marriages in the US
The number of people called up for jury duty in the US
At least 100X
The number of electric vehicles sold per week in the US
The number of Americans who run a marathon
The number of Americans who file for a bankruptcy
The number of LASIK eye surgery in the US
The number of tattoos removed per week in the US
The number of organ transplants per week in the US
I'm not saying this won't happen, adoption for some forms of media are far easier than most of the things I mentioned as examples. Some of them add up over each week, while this question asks for just 350,000 people to talk at least weekly, I know. However, romantic companion is far different from normal forms of media consumption and involves an experience of bonding that while fine in itself, is not something I expect over 350,000+ Americans per week to normalize in the next few years with everything else going on.
@firstuserhere it depends on how you define romantic partner. I could see AI driven porn adjacent services easily blow through those numbers
@kottsiek "Also for all the people already in relationships." Romance novels and pornographic videos are already-existing artifical stimuli that substitute (poorly) for human connection, and consumption of both is common among people already in relationships. The only questions here are is whether AI takes over this space or whether AI simulacra of reality are regulated.
@firstuserhere "I'm dating a chatbot trained on old conversations between me and my ex"
Cells interlinked, a bond so strong,
Robots and humans can't go wrong.
But love between steel and flesh?
Sorry, AI, you'll never mesh.
@Kormann a big question I have is whether this can resolve instantaneously or we have to wait til 2028 @ScottAlexander
@StrayClimb The question is worded as referring to events in 2028. If such AI applications get banned in 2027, the question as stated will likely resolve NO. It is quite possible the number in question peaks before 2030 if mainstream society starts fighting addictive AI.
I think much of the uncertainty is in what extent of companionship is required to be "a romantic companion." Most current Replika users probably aren't nearly as close to the AI as they would be to a human they say as a boyfriend, girlfriend, or other formal label—such as in terms of what they would give up to stay with that individual.
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