In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
73%
chance

I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.

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StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 74%
StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 74%

Related market

Kormann avatar
Kormannbought Ṁ100 of YES

are 350.000 americans talking at least weakly to a romantic partner ai?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 73%

@Kormann I think it's already possibly true

Kormann avatar
Kormannis predicting YES at 73%

@StrayClimb replica has 10 million downloads ...

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 73%

@Kormann a big question I have is whether this can resolve instantaneously or we have to wait til 2028 @ScottAlexander

dp avatar
dpis predicting YES at 76%

@StrayClimb The question is worded as referring to events in 2028. If such AI applications get banned in 2027, the question as stated will likely resolve NO. It is quite possible the number in question peaks before 2030 if mainstream society starts fighting addictive AI.

JacyAnthis avatar
Jacy Reese Anthis

I think much of the uncertainty is in what extent of companionship is required to be "a romantic companion." Most current Replika users probably aren't nearly as close to the AI as they would be to a human they say as a boyfriend, girlfriend, or other formal label—such as in terms of what they would give up to stay with that individual.

Adam avatar
Adambought Ṁ100 of YES

I don't see any real reason to expect the market for this to contract

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 70%

@Adam There's that other councelor market, too.

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 69%

Can this resolve early? Or is it specifically about 2028?

tailcalled avatar
tailcalledis predicting YES at 71%

80% yes

AaronKaufman avatar
Aaron Kaufmanis predicting YES at 50%

Question! Would Replika DAU count toward this number?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 50%

@AaronKaufman I'm also curious about this. Seems yes to me. Replicka is basically an ldr

NihilCranes avatar
NihilCranes

@AaronKaufman they're pivoting away from sexting cuz openai is bringing down the hammer of alignment. r/replika on suicide watch