I think this teeters on the phrase '[which] they consider a romantic companion'. It seems very likely to me that 1 in 1000 people will be having extended, intimate conversations with AI chatbots. For a lot of users these extended conversations may structurally and psychologically simulate relationships.

However, for someone to consider an AI to be their romantic companion, it requires them to publicly and openly claim an equivalence between the relationship that they have with a chatbot and the condition of having a real-life boyfriend or girlfriend.

This feels like too large of a bridge to cross in three years. I think it is more likely that there will be a semi-normalisation / toleration of 'artificial companions' that people interact with often but do not go so far as to consider romantic companions. I accept a serious possibility that this can go either way.

Honestly think we might already be there.

@PhilosophyBear If all the zoomers talking to character.ai counts, then sure, probably? Not sure where you'd find a credible estimate for this market though.

What happened here? The market dropped to 44% but no orders were filled on the way?

@Odoacre yeah there's a bug that made Jackson's sell not get backstopped

@Stralor it sounds like a very serious bug, market mechanics are the core of the product. If we can't even trust those then manifold's just a weird social media platform with fancy upvote/downvoting

https://www.reddit.com/r/tifu/s/fSji4lm0fO one example of surely many to come

That's about when I started to realize how fucking weird and sad it was that I was actually doing this shit so I deleted the app.

Switching to yes after hearing how flirty GPT4o is

I initially predicted no however I have changed my mind. I believe certain demographics of disenfranchised women will regularly communicate with AI companions as the media is non-physical and focused on the cultivation of a romantic relationship, which the latter being a core part of female sexuality. There is a trend on TikTok of women playing the Sims to simulate romantic relationships. Also AI companions will appeal to the men who consistently donate to Twitch streamers and OnlyFans creators, I assume these men will simulate the relationships they wish they could have with these women onto an AI chatbot. There are also other demographics that could be included but these two are the main groups I consider will drive the grow of AI companion bots.

@TalesFromTheBasement https://manifold.markets/Ernie/female-ai-love-bot-chadgpt

Vague, but adjacent and potentially interesting Forbes AI 2030 prediction to bet on?

Character.ai has an estimated 2M WAU in the US right now. Only some fraction of that is using it romantically, but it's a very meaningfully non-zero fraction based on user reviews. Replika has ~160k WAU in the US and is one of the largest AI romantic companions, though I'm sure some portion of that user base falls off and doesn't really consider them a true romantic companion.

This seems like a steal at 60% unless we see some meaningful backlash to AI companions for whatever reason.

@WhateverWhoCares I don't think any significant part of that user base would satisfy this market. I would guess that most of that user base understands themselves (correctly) to be doing something more like playing a video game than having a romantic relationship.

I have the question of what point on the scale this market resolves in 'they get off to it' to 'they treat it as their actual girlfriend' that this is going for. Romantic companion seems to imply nearer to the latter end?

On the latter end I think it is pretty unlikely, but the former end seems probable. Like you have people mentioning Replika, but 1) I presume most aren't using it that often 2) how much do they consider their AI to be a companion versus a fun tool to play with.

(Like for stuff like character.ai, I think it would be incorrect to characterize many of the people using it as considering themselves as friends with the AI characters. Though this is different because it does have more of a culture of 'swap between different characters')

The fact that this is at roughly the same probability as the "full-length film by 2028" question is insane to me.

@BenjaminShindel In which direction?!

Just how aware of this do the users need to be?

Not yet AI powered, as of this article, but obviously will be if it isn't yet.

https://arstechnica.com/culture/2023/05/this-is-catfishing-on-an-industrial-scale/

This is catfishing on an industrial scale

Hired as customer service reps, they lure the lovestruck through a network of dating sites.

@EvanDaniel

AI they consider a romantic companion?

The people consider the AI a romantic companion, which should rule out catfishing attempts

Some qualitative comparisons for what 350,000 per week feels like:

At least 3X

1. The weekly visitors (from around the world, not just americans) to Yellowstone National park.

2. The number of Americans who donate blood

3. The number of dogs that are adopted per week in the US

4. The number of Americans attending Opera per week (unsure)

At least 10X

1. The number of weekly marriages in the US

2. The number of people called up for jury duty in the US

At least 100X

1. The number of electric vehicles sold per week in the US

2. The number of Americans who run a marathon

3. The number of Americans who file for a bankruptcy

4. The number of LASIK eye surgery in the US

5. The number of tattoos removed per week in the US

6. The number of organ transplants per week in the US

I'm not saying this won't happen, adoption for some forms of media are far easier than most of the things I mentioned as examples. Some of them add up over each week, while this question asks for just 350,000 people to talk at least weekly, I know. However, romantic companion is far different from normal forms of media consumption and involves an experience of bonding that while fine in itself, is not something I expect over 350,000+ Americans per week to normalize in the next few years with everything else going on.

Of course you, noted AI skeptic, would say this.

@firstuserhere it depends on how you define romantic partner. I could see AI driven porn adjacent services easily blow through those numbers

@Odoacre yep. I think that's the bigger question, here. For loose enough definitions I think it's obviously going to happen, but where we draw the border for what "counts" is doing to be hard.

https://twitter.com/webdevMason/status/1701926907011592226

this seems insanely high? certainly some people, but 1 in 1000?

@kottsiek 1000 is actually quite a large number.

@osmarks this is very unlikely for the <15 and >65 population tho. Also for all the people already in relationships.

@kottsiek "Also for all the people already in relationships." Romance novels and pornographic videos are already-existing artifical stimuli that substitute (poorly) for human connection, and consumption of both is common among people already in relationships. The only questions here are is whether AI takes over this space or whether AI simulacra of reality are regulated.

@brp people do not usually think of porn videos as their "romantic companion" even if they occasionally get off to them.