I've noticed that free response markets tend to get lower engagement (I haven't actually confirmed this in the data but I'll get around to that eventually).

In response I'm trying an experiment where instead of having one free response market asking for the year in which goal X will be achieved, I am making one binary market for each year. Mathematically this is equivalent (assuming proper arbitrage), and hopefully this will drive engagement by making each individual market easier to participate in, and also by creating arbitrage opportunities across markets. Plus I'm pretty sure I will get more mana from unique trader bonuses this way. Win-win!

Why do I need a subtitle that's a dumb requirement

Implicit Distribution Markets

This is a group for AI timelines with a focus on the near-term, the specific, the measurable, and the objective. There is wiggle room on each of those, in particular for the last since many interesting questions will always have subjective resolution criteria, but I will remove questions from the group if I don't feel they mostly meet these criteria.

In particular questions like "When will AGI be developed" are flat banned, unless the description includes a 

 and measurable definition of "AGI" for the purposes of the question. 