Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
123
1.4kṀ21kDec 31
38%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Set criteria:
At least 1
Draft criteria:
Can't have been led in any way by a human once trained, except for being run
Can have been trained on some set of problems but shouldn't be trained using semi solved problems which then count as the breakthrough
Inspired by the below
Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems
4% chance
Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025
7% chance
Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.
73% chance
Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
15% chance
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
8% chance
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
29% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]
14% chance
Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025
6% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
30% chance
Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025.
65% chance