Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?
29
1kṀ28k2039
96%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The physical experiment must be done by machinery controlled by the model. ie I type "make sulphuric acid" and it does. But much more complex than that. Actual, long experiments which you'd have multiple chemists spending more than a week on.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any AI be shown to accurately simulate an amoeba or heavier on the molecular level before 2025-07-01?
1% chance
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
38% chance
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems
4% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]
14% chance
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
8% chance
Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?
26% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
30% chance
Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.
73% chance
Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?
15% chance
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)
2028