Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
32
1kṀ2884Dec 31
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Set criteria:
Must win some awards
Draft criteria:
Either credibly fully written by AI, not human edited
Or concensus that it would have won a 2023 writing competition but AI itself has led to higher standards
Inspired by tweet thread:
Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?
15% chance
Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025
7% chance
A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.
23% chance
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
38% chance
Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.
73% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]
14% chance
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems
4% chance
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
29% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
30% chance
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
8% chance