Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025

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resolved Jan 12

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Set criteria:

Must win some awards

Draft criteria:

Either credibly fully written by AI, not human edited
Or concensus that it would have won a 2023 writing competition but AI itself has led to higher standards

Inspired by tweet thread:

Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20

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@mods I think this is an uncontroversial NO.

If any of you know him maybe you can contact him to be sure.

@NathanpmYoung

For the record, my object-level prediction on this is ~32%, though it varies ~8-72% depending on the exact criteria used. E.g., Will a short story that is claimed to have been written by an AI win a reputable award? Sure, but a human will probably have been very involved in the editing of the AI output, the way we now in 2023 see lots of claims of AI-generated videos even though the AI's role is just writing the script or producing short video clips (usually just a quick pan/zoom with simple motion of the subject).