Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
32
1kṀ2884Dec 31
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Set criteria:
Must win some awards
Draft criteria:
Either credibly fully written by AI, not human edited
Or concensus that it would have won a 2023 writing competition but AI itself has led to higher standards
Inspired by tweet thread:
Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025
7% chance
A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.
23% chance
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
38% chance
Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.
73% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]
14% chance
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems
4% chance
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
29% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
30% chance
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
8% chance
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
64% chance