AI Capabilities

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Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)50%

#Technical AI Timelines

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Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2024?22% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?36% chance

#Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

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Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?60% chance

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Will drawing AIs like DALL-E be able to draw convicing hands 9 times out of 10 before the end of 2024?93% chance

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Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by (start of) 2024?NO

#Technical AI Timelines

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?22% chance

#Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI

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High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?15% chance

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Will AI agents be used to develop software commercially by the end of 2023?N/A

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

#Resolution Pending

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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?50% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?68% chance

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Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?22% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?64% chance

#Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

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Will an AI assistant be able book flights for me by the end of 2023?NO

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?NO

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Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance

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Instant deepfakes of anyone before the end of 2024?20% chance

#AI Media Creation

#Controversial markets

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Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?26% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?37% chance