Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
232
2kṀ29k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This question resolves to "YES" if an AI agent has learned to speedrun at least one popular category (≥100 unique runners on speedrun.com or another leaderboard) of any video game released before 2022, and has finished at least one run with a better time than any human speedrunner at the time.

Native PC or emulated console games are both fine.

Criteria for resolution:

  • The AI must be capable of speedrunning the game in real time and learn to do so without direct human assistance (learning from e.g. Youtube videos is fine). A traditional TAS (tool-assisted speedrun) does not count.

  • The AI must not receive any information about the game that a human speedrunner wouldn't be able to know during a run, e.g. watching RAM values while playing. Ideally the AI should only receive game's pixels (possibly downscaled or otherwise processed) and maybe audio as input, but this is not a strict requirement.

  • The AI should ideally follow all the rules of the specific game and category it is running, as listed on the game's speedrun.com page (or elsewhere). If there are minor rule breaks, but the AI's run is still obviously much more impressive than the most comparable human WR, I may choose to ignore this requirement.

  • It must be a full-game, non-segmented run, not an IL (individual level) speedrun.

  • The human world record in the category must be over 3 minutes long. Very short speedruns don't count.

I will use my best judgment to resolve this based on the criteria above and will not bet myself.

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