High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?
28
282
510
2030
15%
chance

Will an AI be able to generate a high-quality, fully-functional video game to a prompt by market close?

Example:

An AI receiving the prompt “Create a complete, high-quality, rogue-like deckbuilding video game set in a dystopian future where humans and robots are at war.” should be able to handle all aspects of game creation from this prompt alone, resulting in a fully functional, high-quality video game.

Specifications:

For the purpose of this market:

  • AI-Generated Video Game: Refers to a complete and functional video game created by an AI without human intervention in the creative process. This includes game design, mechanics, graphics, sound, and coding.

  • High-Quality: The game should be comparable in quality and complexity to a mid to high-budget video game produced by humans in the same period. It should have a coherent plot, well-designed game mechanics, professional-level graphics and sound, and be largely free of bugs and glitches.

  • Fully-Functional: The game should be playable from start to finish, offering a complete gaming experience. Should be capable of making experiences that have playtimes comparable to human generated titles.

Conditions:

  1. AI Generation: The AI should develop the game autonomously, including game design, storyline development, character creation, world-building, coding, and testing. Similar to how Midjourney generates a completed image, this AI should generate a completed game.

  2. Verification: At least three reputable industry experts OR MYSELF must verify the AI's ability to handle game quality, functionality, and prompt robustness without human intervention.

  3. Release: The AI doesn't need to publish the game to a store (ex: sell the game, create marketing copy, or deal with storefronts), we are just looking at creating the game.

Resolution:

The market will resolve as “YES” if a game meeting the above criteria is confirmed by market close. If no such game is confirmed by this date, or if the game does not meet all the specified criteria, the market will resolve as “NO”.

- I will NOT bet in this market.
- In the event that a technical anomaly or unforeseen issue leads to a discrepancy between the literal text and the intended meaning (spirit) of the question, the resolution of this market will align with the underlying intent of the question, ensuring the most fair and accurate outcome.

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bought Ṁ0 of NO

In my opinion, there are not nearly enough games for a statistical model to solve this. The mapping between “a short prompt” and “a collection of files needed to play a game” is simply too complicated, and you’d probably need to filter the training data to “games that work on modern operating systems.” Machine code (and any code) demands a level of precision and perfection that I don’t think models are capable of (yes, I know that LLMs can make code, but I don’t think they’re capable of AA game quality code.)

In short, I think that people are overestimating the power of statistics++.

bought Ṁ29 of YES

Clarification of resolution criteria:

Does the AI need to actually generate code? Or can it just generate images/sounds/video in real time in response to the player's input?

@4168760 It needs to generate a game that can run independently of the AI. Similar to how midjourney outputs a complete image.

predicts NO

I think that it’s almost inevitable that someone will claim to have solved this problem using the Gen. AI equivalent of Mad Libs. I.E. the system relies on human created “template” projects which have details that are filled in with AI. That wouldn’t qualify under condition 1, right?

@nottelling2ccc Correct, would not qualify.

bought Ṁ21 of NO

:((( acc isn't betting against me and filling my limit orders on these. cmon acc I swear I have no idea what it takes to make a game 🤞

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