By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
2) We are going to start running out of data to train large language models.
Matt C. Wilson
[Metaculus] Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?
Will I make money offering language model finetuning as a service by the end of 2023?
Will I have access to a program that can reliably determine pronoun and verb referents by the end of 2023?
Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?
Will Bing get a code interpreter? (2023)
Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
Will any country explicitly regulate the use of Large Language Models by 2024?
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?
(M2000 subsidy) How many attendees will the inaugural Conference on Language Modeling (COLM) have in 2024 ?
Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?
Will Duolingo include a Persian course by the end of 2023?
Will the US or China enact a moratorium of any kind on the training of large language models by the end 2023?
Are there more than two names used in general Esperanto Duolingo lessons?
Will any product built using a large language model receive FDA clearance by the end of 2023?
Brian T. Edwards
Will I lead a completed pretraining of a >=1B param language model before EOY 2024?