Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
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2025
64%
chance

If there is a song created primarily by a ML/AI system that's present in the year-end top 100 list by billboard, for the year 2023, 2024, or 2025, then this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.

Evidence for the song being significantly AI-generated can be an official blog-post by the group that created that song, or in the song credits, statements by publishing entities, etc.

I might trade in this market, but only to ensure that there are no glaring mispricings.

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Taylor Swift ft. AI?

bought Ṁ100 YES

I got access to beta of suno.ai, I can totally see this happening. If a big artist collaborates and releases an AI song in the middle of hype cycle , this is not that hard

bought Ṁ150 NO

I feel like it'd have to be a PR thing, like some popular singer or group releases an AI song in partnership with Google or something. Even so, less than 2 years is not that much time, we are not at human-level AI song creation yet, and then they'd still have to make it to the top 100 songs.

bought Ṁ12 of NO

Will a song with only AI vocals count? (assuming no based on your previous responses)

@Shai sorry, i dont understand the question, can you rephrase/elaborate?

predicts NO

@firstuserhere If the song is written and produced by humans but the singing is AI generated

@Shai right now in my opinion, it wouldn't be sufficient if that's the only thing as per the "Evidence for the song being significantly AI-generated" but i am open to hearing arguments for if it should or shouldn't count

predicts YES

@firstuserhere

Bilbo and gandalf together again

bought Ṁ100 of YES
predicts YES

@Austin I've listened to this 10 times already. This future we live in is amazing

@cloudprism it's the grasp of really subtle details that blows my mind. every time I listen again I catch new things. headphones definitely recommended

funnily enough, it's this more than GPT-4 that's really made me 'feel' the pace of AI progress on a gut level

@Rodeo Truly, it's amazing what ML researchers and practitioners have been able to do over the past few years. It goes to show what humanity can accomplish as long as we never give up!

@BoltonBailey yeah given Google’s relative lagging in the AI race, I thought this release might let me down. But no - they’ve really turned things around

how important does the AI have to be for the song? Like what if it just wrote a single verse or something

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@DesTiny having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing (inspired by https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403/25-top-100-songs-made-by-ai-by-2050/)

predicts NO

@firstuserhere I personally do not know what all these things do - so, I'm open to an easier resolution criteria

predicts NO

@DesTiny In a nutshell, a thumb rule like- the AI system was responsible for something like >= 30% of the song production process seems reasonable to me

having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing […] I personally do not know what all these things do


(I don't think there were anything unreasonable, I just found it funny, and I like this meme)

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