AGI When?
345
2.7K
4.1K
2050
2,032
expected

This market resolves to the year in which an AI system exists which is capable of passing a high quality, adversarial Turing test. It is used for the Big Clock on the manifold.markets/ai page.

The Turing test, originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing in 1950, is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human.

For proposed testing criteria, refer to this Metaculus Question by Matthew Barnett, or the Longbets wager between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor.

As of market creation, Metaculus predicts there is an ~88% chance that an AI will pass the Longbets Turing test before 2030, with a median community prediction of July 2028.

Manifold's current prediction of the specific Longbets Turing test can be found here:

/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202

This question is intended to determine the Manifold community's median prediction, not just of the Longbets wager specifically but of any similiarly high-quality test.


Additional Context From Longbets:

One or more human judges interview computers and human foils using terminals (so that the judges won't be prejudiced against the computers for lacking a human appearance). The nature of the dialogue between the human judges and the candidates (i.e., the computers and the human foils) is similar to an online chat using instant messaging.

The computers as well as the human foils try to convince the human judges of their humanness. If the human judges are unable to reliably unmask the computers (as imposter humans) then the computer is considered to have demonstrated human-level intelligence.

Additional Context From Metaculus:

This question refers to a high quality subset of possible Turing tests that will, in theory, be extremely difficult for any AI to pass if the AI does not possess extensive knowledge of the world, mastery of natural language, common sense, a high level of skill at deception, and the ability to reason at least as well as humans do.

A Turing test is said to be "adversarial" if the human judges make a good-faith attempt, in the best of their abilities, to successfully unmask the AI as an impostor among the participants, and the human confederates make a good-faith attempt, in the best of their abilities, to demonstrate that they are humans. In other words, all of the human participants should be trying to ensure that the AI does not pass the test.

Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question. Your feedback is welcome in the comments.

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I'd argue we're already there, AI is already quite general

bought Ṁ5 2038-2039 YES

The probability density is a lot smoother than it was even a couple days ago.

I love this market - but I’m chocked that so many people think AGI will happen in the next 5-6 years.

AGI will require further improvements in the algorithms. I’m sure we will get there - but not within. 3 years. Then we need compute and learning time…

Current technology “transformers” is amazing- it we need even more research.

@Magnus_ the definition of "AGI" here is just passing a turing test. It's pretty different from I think most peoples' intuitive sense of the word "AGI"

bought Ṁ48 2026-2027 YES

@Adam And what definition would that be?

updates from the field

reposted

Any recommendations for me as to how I should purchase "late" shares without displacing the clock by 3 years every time? Just purchase 50 mana worth at a time I guess?

@NeoPangloss You can use limit orders I think

@dionisos I don't think you can, unfortunately. This isn't yes/no, it's much more like metaculis where you define a range

@NeoPangloss Yes my bad, I remembered it was possible to put limit orders, but just checked and it seems we can't.
I think it oughts to be possible to implement it (by example, we can buy at a certain amount of shares for our bet), but for now it isn’t.

@dionisos it's just an engineering problem for sure, I think I prefer the kick ass AI countdown clock and stuff like that so this can wait, messing with the clock won't kill anyone!

@NeoPangloss 2032 seems roughly in line with similar markets. Buy what you want and let the market sort it out. I suspect it will get bought back down to about where it is, unless you're putting in whale amounts.

@ManifoldAI Can I suggest retitling this market, and creating a real AGI market that would be used for the countdown clock? I love the idea of what you're doing here, but I there's a big delta between a turing test and AGI. This will come clear to even Laymen soon

@ElliotDavies make the better market yourself. If you do it I'll even managram you 1000 mana and I will try to convince Joshua and Genzy to managram you more.

@ElliotDavies I already placed my bets with the criterion outlined. Imo we already have models today that can beat the turing test; not sure what more is being asked of here.

turing test? i don't want something that reasons like a human, i want something smart.

bought Ṁ10 2049-2050 YES

Excuse me, there is an error with this market, I can't bet longer than 2050.

@Najawin the last bucket, 2050, would resolve YES if we're in 2050 and there's still no AGI

@Najawin it's "when will an ai pass a turing test", not actually AGI, so I'd be shocked if it happens later than 2050

@Adam That is substantially likelier, hence my 10m, but adversarial, high quality, eh, I have doubts that people won't be able to figure out some edge cases each time.

@Najawin yeah, I've got a bimodal bet between 2026-2030 and 2050

Made some profit on this market and wanted to sell my shares, but I don't see any options to do so. I assume this is by design?

@NoyaV Numeric markets are in development, you cant sell yet but you’ll soon be able to

@Bayesian Will there be a way to sell just some of one's shares within a range? I'm currently only seeing an option to sell all shares within a range.

Edit: Sorry if you're not the right person to ask, just you seem knowledgeable about this!

@binarypigeon there has to be at some point, I don't know whether that specifically is being worked on right now, but yeah that's a pretty important part of selling, that you're able to selectively sell some shares and not others