By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
117
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2030
96%
chance

The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things

The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI."

Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.

Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.

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