Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?
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Plus
80
205k
2026
52%
chance

https://arcprize.org/competition
>=85% performance on Chollet's abstraction and reasoning corpus, private set.
(If Chollet et al. change the requirements for the grand prize in 2025, this question will not change. The bar will remain >=85% performance)

2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai

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Now James is on the action. Thanks!

Note that this prize doesn't allow for close source models to be used in doing the actual task.

Of course, distillation is possible etc.

opened a Ṁ50,000 YES at 75% order

Did you mean “by 2025” or “in 2025”? Meaning, how would it resolve it the prize were claimed in 2024?

You're right, thanks. Correcting.

@mckiev i might take you up on the offer, but what's your reasoning for 85% accuracy? we're at 30% right now

Vibes based for the most part ;)

Tasks seem easy, 100s of billions being invested in ai right now, and there is hype and status around beating this benchmark