Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?
Plus
163
Ṁ340k2026
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://arcprize.org/competition
>=85% performance on Chollet's abstraction and reasoning corpus, private set.
(If Chollet et al. change the requirements for the grand prize in 2025, this question will not change. The bar will remain >=85% performance)
2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
I made a version of this market which allows for closed source LLMs: https://manifold.markets/RyanGreenblatt/by-when-will-85-be-reached-on-the-p
This is your chance to win free mana betting against SG, which is a guaranteed winning strategy exploited by top traders such as jackson
@mckiev i might take you up on the offer, but what's your reasoning for 85% accuracy? we're at 30% right now
Related questions
Related questions
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
56% chance
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
7% chance
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2027?
63% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
43% chance
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?
78% chance
Before what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?
Will we get AGI before 2028?
38% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
43% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
18% chance