Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
284
10kṀ670k
2026
11%
chance

https://arcprize.org/competition
>=85% performance on Chollet's abstraction and reasoning corpus, private set.
(If Chollet et al. change the requirements for the grand prize in 2025, this question will not change. The bar will remain >=85% performance)

  • Update 2024-20-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market uses the grand prize rules from ARC-AGI, not the public prize rules

    • The 87.5% score mentioned in comments was for the semi-private dataset, which does not satisfy the grand prize criteria requiring performance on the private dataset

  • Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will be resolved based on the original 2024 ARC-AGI test set ("ARC-AGI-1"), not the updated ARC-AGI-2 dataset (AI summary of creator comment)

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