Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
56
514
Ṁ5.4KṀ2.4K
2027
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will subjectively judge if they are in the lead based on whether my best guess is that their most capable deployed models are more capable than all other AGI labs' most capable deployed models. Internal deployment counts if there are credible reports of its capabilities. They are currently in the lead by this definition due to GPT-4 though credible reports about Gemini's capabilities could overturn this soon. I may ask some friends for their takes if it's close.
Edit: If I have access to significant private info at the time, I will ask someone I trust who does not to take over resolving based on public info
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
26% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
68% chance
Will general consensus be that OpenAI is no longer the lead AI company by end of 2024?
33% chance
Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go above 60% before 2024 ends?
20% chance
Will OpenAI exist as an independent entity by 2025?
72% chance
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?
75% chance
Will OpenAI Announce AI Robots in 2024?
23% chance
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
42% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
23% chance
Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)
43% chance