Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
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2030
24%
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For people who do not realize this, Isaac's definition of superintelligence includes "able to design and deploy a complicated website like a Facebook clone in under a minute."

This resolves NO, as do the 2040 and 2050 versions.

@DavidBolin 2030 hasn't happened yet and that seems entirely possible.

predicts NO

@osmarks That is not remotely possible; not by 2030; not by 2040; not by 2050.

@DavidBolin What part do you think is not remotely possible?

@firstuserhere "under a minute"

predicts YES

@DavidBolin I mean, I can write code for a Facebook clone (if you mean just basic features and not the entire bloated mess) in a week or so and deploy it (to a server I have up, unless it's built as some complex distributed thing) in very little time. It seems entirely reasonable to be able to do it faster. I don't think there are relevant hard limits here.

predicts NO

@osmarks How fast does a website get deployed, given limitations on the side of the server deploying it?

predicts YES

@DavidBolin I can run deployments in about five seconds (sync over code, restart service).

predicts NO

So 55 seconds left.

predicts YES

@DavidBolin Yes. My single 2020 consumer GPU running Mistral-7B in 6bpw with Exllama V2 gets 120 tokens a second. That is 6000 or so tokens in that time. I think you would need more than that to write the entire program, but that's easily doable with more GPUs (the task is partly parallelizable) or faster ones. Obviously to do it correctly you will need something smarter than a tiny quantized language model, but I think this suggests it's not fundamentally impossible.

predicts NO

@osmarks How many seconds will you use up downloading and installing libraries and dependencies?

@DavidBolin Depends on the language and such, but that step can run in parallel.

@osmarks Run in parallel with what?

You will have to know exactly which libraries you need before you can download them.

predicts YES

@DavidBolin I usually know most of the libraries I will require before finishing the code.

predicts NO

@osmarks Not really worth discussing.

The real probability of the movie market is something like 1-2%

The real probability of this market (with Isaac's definition) is something like 1000 times less probable than the movie one.

predicts YES

@DavidBolin I don't agree with that and I also don't think you and people in general have good enough calibration to casually discuss probabilities like 10^-5.

predicts NO

@osmarks That is true in general but not in this case.

predicts NO

@osmarks And even if it were, that would not get you anywhere above single digit probability for this market. This is massively miscalibrated, and so is the movie market (although this is worse by far.)

Definition of existential catastrophe? Is human extinction sufficient?

predicts NO

"Conditional on no existential catastrophe"

That's true for every market, you don't need to state it 🤣

predicts NO

@Shelvacu Yeah, but people get confused when I don't.

predicts NO

@Shelvacu Many people prefer to express their true beliefs about existential catastrophe instead of optimizing for mana in worlds where we don‘t go extinct.

definition of superintelligence?
Is it just clearly better than humans on every single mesurable benchmark or does it need to make crazy magic things happen

@Kormann It doesn't need to do anything not permitted by the laws of physics, but it needs to be very obviously a vast advance over human intelligence.

@IsaacKing You've answered this at least twice in this series in slightly different ways. Please could you add your definition to the description (and ideally make it the same one!)

predicts NO