What organization will be the first to create AGI?
117
909
5K
2030
27%
DeepMind
27%
Other
25%
OpenAI
8%
The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)
6%
Anthropic
1.8%
Elon's X.AI company
1.8%
A single individual not listed here
1.5%
The Chinese Communist Party
1.5%
Microsoft

I'm defining AGI as an algorithm that can do any human white collar job. If things get complicated I might resolve if a single algorithm can perform better than humans on all the most common AI benchmarks in text, vision, and audio.

The common LLM benchmarks: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard

The most common vision tasks:

https://scale.com/blog/best-10-public-datasets-object-detection

And the Audio Tasks / Datasets mentioned here:

https://huggingface.co/blog/audio-datasets

If a single algorithm can do better than a human on all of these tasks, I think it is almost certain that it can do most any desk job. And I would resolve this question with the creator of that algorithm.

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@mariopasquato Idk, should they have been there own option?

"better than humans" meaning better than the median human, better than the median human professional, or better than all humans?

Eg if AIs regularly write NYT bestsellers but don't crack the top 3 most sold books that year, does this count as AGI re: writing?

@Linch I don’t think writing a best seller tells us enough about general capabilities. But if the same AI can do many things, like exceed human performance on the benchmarks I mentioned, then it is more indicative of AGI, than only being good at writing.

@ChrisCanal if no one creates AGI by 2030 what will you do? Extend resolution time, resolve Other, or N/A?

@parhizj obviously NA

@parhizj It hadn't crossed my mind as possibility, but it feels like I should extend. I really really don't think this will come into play though. Why do you think it should be NA @ElliotDavies ?

@ChrisCanal well resolving "other" would be a misresolution (it would clearly imply some other org had created agi.

You could extend, but you should probably do that sooner rather than now, because resolution dates are typically considered an extension of the resolution criteria. Modifying resolution dates modifies the relative odds

I was just informed that Google Brain and DeepMind merged a few months back. So I think if this team is first I will resolve DeepMind to be the winner, so no one buy google brain. Sorry. https://www.deepmind.com/blog/announcing-google-deepmind