AI progress🤖

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Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?49% chance
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Premium
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?43% chance
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By 2029, will an AI escape containment?48% chance
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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?65% chance
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Crystal
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?81% chance
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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?79% chance
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In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?74% chance
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Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 202771% chance
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How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?
100%73%
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16%
1-2
9%
3-5
1.2%
6-10
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In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?79% chance
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Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?42% chance
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Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026?24% chance
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Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 50M views before 2025?3% chance
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High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?45% chance
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Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?17% chance
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Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 202538% chance
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Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025.23% chance
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Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 202519% chance
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Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?96% chance
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Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 202515% chance
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