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AI progress🤖

á¹€1.1k
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
23% chance
á¹€1.1k
á¹€21k
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
26% chance
á¹€21k
á¹€2.3k
By 2029, will an AI escape containment?
59% chance
á¹€2.3k
á¹€2.8k
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
52% chance
á¹€2.8k
á¹€100k
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
YES
á¹€100k
á¹€2.2k
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
66% chance
á¹€2.2k
á¹€7.3k
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
89% chance
á¹€7.3k
á¹€1.6k
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
71% chance
á¹€1.6k
á¹€2.3k
How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?
100%73%
0
16%
1-2
9%
3-5
1.2%
6-10
See 1 more answer
á¹€2.3k
á¹€2.4k
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
92% chance
á¹€2.4k
á¹€1k
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026?
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 50M views before 2025?
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?
49% chance
á¹€1k
á¹€1.2k
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
NO
á¹€1.2k
á¹€1.4k
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
18% chance
á¹€1.4k
á¹€1k
Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025.
22% chance
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
NO
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?
98% chance
á¹€1k
á¹€1k
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
6% chance
á¹€1k