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AI progress🤖
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
43%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Children
#
Technical AI Timelines
87
Ṁ1.1K
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
37%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
ACX
#
Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions
2767
Ṁ11K
By 2029, will an AI escape containment?
55%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
Technical AI Safety
#
AI
144
Ṁ2.2K
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
36%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
ACX
#
Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions
248
Ṁ2.8K
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
21%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Technology
#
Technical AI Timelines
1816
Ṁ7.9K
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
65%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions
#
AI
158
Ṁ2.2K
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
64%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions
#
AI
309
Ṁ2.3K
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
72%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
125
Ṁ1.6K
How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?
44%
0
Yes
No
27%
1-2
Yes
No
24%
3-5
Yes
No
3%
6-10
Yes
No
See 1 more answer
#
OpenAI
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
AI
69
Ṁ2.3K
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
64%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
ACX
#
Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions
351
Ṁ2.4K
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?
59%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Books
56
Ṁ1K
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026?
47%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
YouTube
#
Generative AI
19
Ṁ390
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 50M views before 2025?
57%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Generative AI
#
AI
#
YouTube
39
Ṁ750
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?
28%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Gaming
#
AI
#
AI Impacts
42
Ṁ770
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
38%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Culture
#
Video Games
#
AI
89
Ṁ1.2K
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
30%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
AI
#
Science
95
Ṁ1.4K
Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025.
43%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
AI
24
Ṁ490
Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
20%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
AI
27
Ṁ550
Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?
95%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
29
Ṁ650
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
24%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
AI
11
Ṁ250
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