AI Capabilities

Ṁ33k
Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)
50%
Ṁ2.3k
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ21k
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
26% chance
Ṁ4.5k
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
2% chance
Ṁ1k
Will drawing AIs like DALL-E be able to draw convicing hands 9 times out of 10 before the end of 2024?
95% chance
Ṁ3.1k
Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by (start of) 2024?
NO
Ṁ2k
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ1k
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?
22% chance
Ṁ4.6k
Will AI agents be used to develop software commercially by the end of 2023?
N/A
Ṁ4.4k
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
46% chance
Ṁ2.4k
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76% chance
Ṁ100k
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
YES
Ṁ2.4k
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
92% chance
Ṁ1.7k
Will an AI assistant be able book flights for me by the end of 2023?
NO
Ṁ10k
Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
NO
Ṁ1.7k
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
88% chance
Ṁ4k
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) before the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ3.7k
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?
NO
Ṁ1.7k
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
13% chance
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