Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term? | Manifold

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

284

Ṁ10kṀ82k

2029

61%

chance

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1M

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Question resolves based on him being officially impeached by the House (as he was twice during his first term); conviction by the Senate does not affect this question one way or the other.

Resolves N/A in the (now quite unlikely) event that he does not win.

Market context

Republican Party

2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ150 YES

Imo this should trade higher given the higher implied probability of Democrat House control after 2026 due to recent elections

A similar market is here:

bought Ṁ100 NO

No: this would be a completely stupid and counterproductive thing to do (and of course assumes the dems retake the house in 2026).

Yes: the dems never learn from their mistakes.

@traders just upgraded to Premium!

opened a Ṁ990 YES at 33% order

@MattP getting a decent amount of action - I think the trader pool will probably be a decent enough source of liquidity at this point. Pulling down to M5000 subsidy (halfway between Plus and Premium).

/mattyb/will-the-house-of-representatives-b

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Will Trump finish his second term?

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Will Donald Trump die during his term?

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Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

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Related questions

Will Trump finish his second term?

What will happen during Trump's second term?

Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?

Will the House of Representatives begin an impeachment of Donald Trump during his second term?

If Donald Trump is re-elected, how many times will he be impeached during his second term?

Will Donald Trump die during his term?

If Donald Trump is impeached again in his second term, will it stick?

Will Donald Trump get impeached again in his lifetime?

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

If Donald Trump is impeached in his second term, what will he be charged with?

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