Question resolves based on him being officially impeached by the House (as he was twice during his first term); conviction by the Senate does not affect this question one way or the other.
Resolves N/A in the (now quite unlikely) event that he does not win.
1,000People are also trading
62% seems high but is defensible if you think through the structure. Impeachment only requires a simple House majority. The key question is whether Democrats win the House in 2026 midterms.
Historical base rate: the president's party almost always loses House seats in midterms (average ~26 seats since WWII). Republicans currently have a slim majority. If Democrats flip the House in Nov 2026, they would have from Jan 2027 to Jan 2029 to impeach. Given they impeached Trump twice during his first term, political willingness is clearly there.
So the decomposition is roughly: P(Dems win House 2026) x P(they impeach given majority). The first is maybe 65-75% based on midterm patterns. The second seems quite high given precedent, perhaps 75-85%. That gives 49-64%, which is broadly consistent with the current price. The risk to YES bettors is that even a Democratic House might choose not to impeach a third time if it seems politically counterproductive.
Imo this should trade higher given the higher implied probability of Democrat House control after 2026 due to recent elections
@MattP getting a decent amount of action - I think the trader pool will probably be a decent enough source of liquidity at this point. Pulling down to M5000 subsidy (halfway between Plus and Premium).