Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk?

This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.

As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.

• Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that for a statement to count as disparagement, it should be clearly bullying or belittling Musk specifically. An ambiguous statement (e.g., an anecdote about "a fat person" rather than a direct insult to Musk about his weight) may not count if:

  • It appears primarily intended to support a policy rather than to personally attack or distance from Musk.

  • It is accompanied by simultaneous positive statements about Musk.

• Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator elaborated that statements constituting 'back-handed praise' of Musk (e.g., comments that are 'not exactly nice' but are combined with explicit praise) do not meet the threshold for disparagement for this market. Such statements, on their own, are considered 'not particularly close to resolving the question' if they are not clearly bullying or belittling Musk specifically.