Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. Markets close will be extended as needed.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
Related questions
Why is the prob on 2024 so low? Trump has several trial dates set for early 2024, and would be imprisoned if convicted. What am I missing?
@AdamK He will be free until his appeals run out so likely an extra six months after conviction. Except in Georgia but prosecutors there have said the trial could take a year.
@BTE I find it highly highly unlikely, especially 50% or more as stated here, that Judge Chutkan would allow him to post bail pending appeal like Holmes was granted.
@AdamTreat This one I agree. We will see how long the trial takes. When do you think it will start? By the end of the year?
@BTE No, there is a lot more uncertainty about the Georgia case being complete before 2025, but I agree with the OP that the % here for 2024 vs 2025 seems wrong
@AdamTreat I guess Trump is a much greater flight risk than Holmes was having his own plane and all. But he couldn’t hide anywhere. Who doesn’t know who he is? He would have to go to a place that wouldn’t extradite him.
@BTE There also has to be a substantial question for the appeal as well as a finding that he poses no harm
@mariopasquato Who cares about those? There is precedent for people running for president from inside prison so that won’t help him at all.
@BTE At least some manifolders don’t share your level of trust in the division of powers between the judiciary and the executive branches
@BTE I mean that imprisoning Trump right before the elections is bad optics for the Democrats. It would look like he is been persecuted for political reasons. Trump could capitalize on this to get reelected. So the executive will pull whatever strings they can to delay his imprisonment.
@mariopasquato If Trump is reelected it’s actually his VP that is getting elected because he will be impeached and removed maybe even before he takes the oath. High crimes and misdemeanors are indisputable at this point. At least in a political trial. Mitch McConnell will make sure it’s the last thing he does. I need to make a market about this…
@mariopasquato Giving him exceptions will just enable other people to run for president to avoid going to jail. They can’t just say “this precedent is only applicable to Trump because he is the leading candidate”.
@BTE why would they care about damaging democracy in the long term if it gives them short term gains?
@AdamTreat Presuming the GOP doesn’t just want to move on to his VP. If he chooses someone desirable he is toast. They could easily invoke the 25th amendment even. Zero chance he won’t be unhinged. What are talking about now is why they need to use the 14th amendment. There are plenty of other candidates he is not necessary just because he is the leader. The threat he poses is far more important than any other concern.
@mariopasquato Why do you think he is even the most likely to win? The GOP could do better. They could nominate someone who will beat Biden easily. That would be smarter.
@mariopasquato Trump will be the nominee, the 14th won’t be used, and we will have an election with him likely in prison or at least convicted.
@AdamTreat Steve Schwatzman said it very elegantly the other day when predicting the unexpected in the election, “All the straight line predictions of what’s gonna happen — I sort of just sit back and say I’ve seen a lot of volatility in my life.” This guy is one of the biggest GOP donors and he doesn’t think Trump is going to win. He expects the unexpected especially since the public clearly doesn’t want either Biden or Trump if given the choice.
@mariopasquato Who knows. But your comments about the inevitable remind me very much of the way people spoke of Hillary before Barack came on the scene. It’s not too late for a lot to happen.
@BTE You are right about the unknown unknown. Is there a market for betting on who the nominee will be if not Trump?
