1.9K
27K
21K
Dec 31
49%
Never
0.1%
2023
9%
2024
32%
2025
5%
2026
1.2%
2027
0.6%
2028
1.1%
2029
1.3%
2030s
0.3%
2040s or later

Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. Markets close will be extended as needed.

What counts?

  • Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

  • Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

  • Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

  • It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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I beasted this market

There is a conflict of interest if you believe it will never happen, or happen far in the future; if your prediction is correct, you're likely to never see your mana again.

Doesn't this hamper the ability for this market to provide an accurate prediction?

Your money is only tied up temporarily, as Manifold's "loans" feature gives you back access to 4% of it per day. That adds up very quickly—after a month you've gotten access to over 2/3 of what you invested (0.96^30 is ~0.29), and after a year the amount you have tied up is negligible (less than one part in a million.)

This assumes that you claim your loan every day, now that loans need to be claimed manually.

@zzq That's an interesting feature that I didn't know about. So you're honest when you say this 100% mitigates the opportunity cost of tying up your mana for the indefinate future?

@GazDownright zzq is correct. It doesn't 100% mitigate the cost, but definitely most of it. You're still out of that mana for a ~month. And if the value of the market drops, then you only get loans for the new value of the market, so that could be a risk.

@GazDownright His residual life expectancy is ~8 years so this is long term but not as much as it looks like

@MartinRandall Would you characterize this as a "long term market"?

@IsaacKing In what context?

@MartinRandall Just in a general sense. :)

@IsaacKing Some markets resolve far enough in the future that it's unlikely that Manifold will exist, mana is likely to be less valuable due to inflation, and we might be extinct. I think those considerations start to bite after about five years.

This market is weird because it might be short term or long term. In principle that distorts the market price but I think people who care about maximizing RoI mostly bet on shorter term markets.

bought Ṁ50 of Never YES

It would behoove everyone to read about William “Boss” Tweed… his fate is Trump’s.

History doesn’t repeat itself or necessarily rhyme, but it certainly has a sense of humor mirroring its human constructors.

2040s or later

Hi! I"m new here. Just realised good idea to check "Closes" date before betting. But here there is "Markets close will be extended as needed.". What does it mean? If my understanding will differ from the author, is there a way to appeal?

@MaximAnnen It generally means that because this market won’t resolve until the event happens or it is impossible (he dies) that the close date will be extended to allow trading until that time. The alternative would be

  • trading is stopped while we wait for a resolution, or

  • market would resolve NO if conditions aren’t met at close date (almost always, this is stipulated in the title/description)

There’s not really a way to “appeal” and get mod intervention unless they’re acting maliciously

Welcome to manifold!

bought Ṁ1 of 2028 YES

@Gen , I just did RTFM (FAQ),. Author is expected to resolve unless "exceptional circumstances". I see the point. only I expect one circumstance to happen often - author forgot/lost interest.

Betting 20 years forward makes those risks significant.

@MaximAnnen Yeah, if the author doesn’t resolve generally a mod without a position will. If it’s disputed how to resolve it, in some extreme cases a group of mods will discuss & vote.

The latter is exceptionally rare though. Spread your mana around - enjoy the wins and prepare for losses 😄

2024

Can anyone betting YES on this please explain in conceivable scenario even one of his ongoing trials concludes before the year is out, despite Trump’s legal team explicit intention to stall until after the election? This is free mana imo

bought Ṁ50 of 2024 NO

@SteveAcomb I agree it's unlikely, but explicit intention to stall until after the election seems like it could be countered by explicit intention to not let Trump get his way or not be bullied by Trump

@Gen But that would mean conviction and sentencing by EOY. That’s what’s very unlikely.

@SteveAcomb He could violate his gage order one more time. That could land him in prison for a few days. Other than that, you’re right.

@Marq No judge will send him to jail in an election year.

@NicoDelon you’re probably right.

@NicoDelon Assuming someone isn't killed or attacked violently. Plus putting him in custody is so easy. The SS detail just flips from protection to detention. He is already basically locked down/up.

@NicoDelon how the mechanics of being a convicted criminal and not being throwed into jail work? I'm not familiar with the U.S. Federal criminal law, nor the criminal law in Georgia, and New York, but if the jury finds you guilty. Can the judge just leave you free until the judge comes up with how many years you're going to stay in jail?

Also, if judges weren't interested in making justice and putting criminals in the jail, why would they be scheduling trials for 2024?

@MP According to the description he must be serving a sentence, which he can only do once sentenced. It doesn’t matter if he’s in custody or not. SBF was convicted. He’s not free. And yet he’s not (yet) serving a sentence since he hasn’t been sentenced.

@NicoDelon Makes total sense. Thank you.

@NicoDelon ugh, it's actually contradicting itself, because it also says that jail post-conviction counts. Thanks for surfacing this, I'll check market history and make a call.

@MartinRandall To your credit, and against what I was saying based on the description, ‘time served’ is often used in sentencing and that’s what Trump would do if he were in custody between conviction and sentencing. In the spirit of your market that would be Trump serving time. I’m not wed to the ‘serving a sentence’ clause.

@MartinRandall IMHO, the spirit of the question is that he would be serving time after being proven guilty. The sentence would formalize only when he would be eligible to leave prison; this question is about when (and if) he ever goes in.

@DanielParker I agree, I'll try to make that explicit in the criteria

bought Ṁ40 of 2024 NO

@SteveAcomb Plea deal? There’s a month and a half after losing the general election, or longer if a state court rules him ineligible for the primary or he loses the primary.

@SteveAcomb "When will Trump serve time? Yes."

Not sure I understand.

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