@Bayesian Resolves NO

@NivlacM Do you live in California?

@Bayesian this one can be resolved

He was pardoned by Biden

@FergusArgyll Yes, and it was criminal, but there is still a chance that scotus overturns the pardons, and perhaps there are non-criminal types investigation?

@skibidist SCOTUS cannot overturn a pardon. I assume investigated means criminally investigated, I'd like some clarification I guess, @Bayesian

@FergusArgyll Manifold says there's 20% it will https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-scotus-strike-down-the-preempt

Some reporting that Trump signed an EO leaving World Health Organization.

I don't know the law to know whether that is enough to actually cause the U.S. to leave.

@Marnix @creator TSLA started the term over $400/share, how is this being interpreted? Does that mean it's a YES already? Or does it have to pass below $400?

@skibidist Resolves YES. He just signed the executive order

@Marnix how exactly are we defining The New Norm here?

@TheAllMemeingEye The New Norm ain't the same as the old norm (it's a shitty anti-woke web series on X)

@Marnix ah thanks 👍

What’s predictable is preventable.

@Predictor not always, I can predict that the universe will continue to exist tomorrow, but I can't prevent it, for most of us it's similarly impossible to stop most of the bad things Trump might do

@Bayesian @Krantz can we get some ideas on what it takes for a YES resolution on Trumps "discloses Aliens are real"? The question is ramping up quite heavy investments.

Is it enough with an offhand statement? Does it have to be certainty/conviction, or just a "more likely than not" leaning statement? Is any evidence presented needed, or is a statement without backing enough?

@HenriThunberg It would require an official statement. It doesn't necessarily require full evidence to be declassified nor a majority of the public to believe it. It does however need to be an official position held by the administration backed by certainty/conviction.

i’ll let krantz clarify the meaing as long as it seems reasonable and close to the spirit of the market. I’ll add that presumably this refers to the trump saying aliens we ve somehow interacted with or that visited earth are real, not ones 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe or wtv

@Bayesian Correct. The claim would need to include some sort of admission that covert military programs have recovered/ interacted with vehicles and non-human lifeforms. For example, if Trump cooberated the public claims made by individuals like Steven Greer or Daniel Sheehan, that would count.

If he said their claims are interesting, plausible, and will be investigated further, that would not meet the criteria.

Trump discloses Aliens are real. (interacted with humans / we found alien tech / etc.)

are you happy with this edit? @Krantz

@Bayesian @Krantz awesome, thanks both!

Trump has already shown that he wants to end the genocide in Gaza, the one issue that I thought he would be worse than Joe Biden on (both are beholden to Israel).

If he gets us out of the WHO and WTO and one man can pray, NATO, he will go down as the best president of my lifetime. By far.

@stardust what's wrong with WHO, WTO, and NATO? Aren't they quite important for health, trade, and defence?

@stardust

If he gets us out of the WHO and WTO and one man can pray, NATO, he will go down as the best president of my lifetime. By far.

> Nicholas II pfp

@TheAllMemeingEye They're important for abortion, gay sex, transgenderism, and pornography. The sooner we get out of the globalist world order the better.

@RatUziCat I am a monarchist, yes. What about it?

@RatUziCat

Are you sure you want to interact with a guy that has a picture of an actual fucking czar as his profile picture?

- @BrunoParga https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc#annpedzwogd

@stardust

They're important for abortion, gay sex, transgenderism, and pornography.

Could you elaborate? These seem pretty damn far from what they do

@TheAllMemeingEye They ultimately enforce this kind of idea of a globalist secularist world order, which directly leads to the listed.

@TheAllMemeingEye Sad that the modern world has become so degenerate that "Christianity" and "monarchy" are basically dirty words.

@stardust presumably then you'd be ok with versions of them that were explicitly orthodox Christian and only contained orthodox Christian nations (e.g. Russia, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia etc.)?

@stardust Enjoy it while you can.

@Predictor reported to @mods

@TheAllMemeingEye

@ScipioFabius lol we're all like

@TheAllMemeingEye I would change some things but in concept yes, I would be fine with some level of international cooperation in concord with rules set by the Church between Orthodox nations.

@ScipioFabius I am a Russian-American, and the Russian monarchy was far more just than President Putin is, who is far more sane and just than the Western world order.

@stardust Why are you staying in america if you think Putin is so sane and just? And, i'd very much disagree on Russian monarchy being just against my people.

@ScipioFabius I am a husband, and thus I have a wife and children. My wife is not a native Russian speaker (though she's learning, with the help of some of our wonderful parishioners!) and I made the mistake of not teaching some of my older children, so they don't know very much outside of common phrases and very basic stuff. Thus I have to stay here until they at least have made their place in the world and secured something. For my sons that means getting a stable, well-paying job which can help them raise a family. For my daughters that means finding a good, just, Christian man to marry.

To answer the more generalized case, although I do have plans to move to Russia when that's all said and done, the LORD tells us to spread the faith. The reason why Roman Catholics and Protestants have made, admittedly, a larger impact on the culture than Orthodox Christians is that they made more of an effort to evangelize. But now it is time for Orthodoxy to take the world by storm. I see a lot of people, especially young men, converting to Orthodoxy in America, and if the LORD wills that I help contribute to that trend then I would be honored to receive such a task.

@stardust dude how did you get a wife when I'm pretty sure I've previously seen you express very strong misogynistic views?

@TheAllMemeingEye I reject the categorization of being a "misogynist", it is merely a fact that men and women are different and that there are distinct male and female tropoi. Insisting that men and women are interchangeable widgets that do not have distinct and complementary telos is harmful to both men and women, and to the family.

Christian women understand this too, and more are starting to reject the fact that society wants to make them men -- and not just in the transformer sense. If you want an example, Rachel Wilson is pretty smart for a woman.

@stardust

Rachel Wilson is pretty smart for a woman

Wait, which one did you have in mind? There's a few

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Wilson_(disambiguation)

@TheAllMemeingEye Rachel Wilson as in Andrew Wilson's wife.

@stardust ah, thanks for clarifying

@stardust I understand your reasons for staying in America then, from a practical standpoint, but it does still deeply frustrate me that you defend the monarchy or call Putin sane, having lived in a free country.

@ScipioFabius Well, you should understand that from a Christian perspective, what does "free" mean? Is it the freedom to be an adulterer, pornographer, sexual predator, sodomite, philanderer, blasphemer, etc.? Is it your freedom to vote for a regime that will continue to send endless money and weapons to Israel, which is committing a genocide and ethnic cleansing as we speak?

"Hell is a democracy. Heaven is a Kingdom" – Saint John of Kronstadt

@stardust I think in this context people usually mean freedom to criticise the regime without falling out of a window

@stardust It is your freedom to actually elect officials, like you did by voting Trump. If america weren't a democracy, you couldn't elect Trump and 'contribute to a trend' freely, like you said you do, don't you think? Additionaly, it is a freedom to freely express and practice your prefered identity, within the Overton window, which for you is the Christian Orthodoxy. For me it is my Latvian identity, which my country can finally express because we are free from all the monarchies (and yes, Russification under Nicholas II) and totalitarian regimes for whom we were a 'problem'. In my country, Russification has been a big deal for a long time, and if not for NATO and the EU, the Baltics would already have met the fate of Ukraine long ago, so I'm very grateful for these alliances, and the freedom they grant me.

@ScipioFabius Trump is good in the context of modern America. But a random statesman from the 1500s (let alone Nicholas II) would make Trump, Biden, and Harris all look like a joke. Statescraft should not be the job of the masses; that the masses can sometimes be correct is no excuse.

Additionaly, it is a freedom to freely express and practice your prefered identity, within the Overton window, which for you is the Christian Orthodoxy.

There are some things which you should be free to practice, like glorifying God, and some you should not, like murder, murder of babies in their mothers' wombs, homosexuality, transgenderism, etc.

That "democracy" has allowed these excesses is evidence enough of its incompetence.

@stardust And there is no such thing as a perfect and just leader. Your example of 1500s statescraft almost always benefitted one part of the masses to the detriment of the others.

There are some things which you should be free to practice, like glorifying God, and some you should not, like murder, murder of babies in their mothers' wombs, homosexuality, transgenderism, etc.

these are questions of morals, and is for a state to decide on its own. I believe it is immoral to enforce ones morals on others (take, imperialism, for example). Same goes for culture and cultural identity, the question you did not adress.

Do you believe that people have a right to revolution?

@ScipioFabius

And there is no such thing as a perfect and just leader. Your example of 1500s statescraft almost always benefitted one part of the masses to the detriment of the others.

Well of course, everyone possessing a human nature except for the Mother of God and Christ have sinned. Doesn't mean that a 1500s statesman wouldn't run circles around Trump, who would run circles around Biden, who would run circles around a "woman president"..

these are questions of morals, and is for a state to decide on its own. I believe it is immoral to enforce ones morals on others

If it's "immoral to enforce one's morals on others", then you're being immoral right now by enforcing your "no imperailism" moral on me. This is self-refuting.

Same goes for culture and cultural identity, the question you did not adress.

I dunno much about the whole Latvia thing. Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong.

Do you believe that people have a right to revolution?

Depends what they're revolting about.

@stardust That's no to coexistance from you to me it seems. Thank you for sharing your views.

@ScipioFabius Of course. I hope that one day you will see the Truth and enter into the Orthodox Church. Until then, I will keep you in my prayers.