@Quillist Please provide more detail for what qualifies as major war

@Quillist

Resolution criteria?

According to wikipedia Russo-Ukraine war has been ongoing since 2014 non-stop with russian backed rebel groups fighting in the Dombas

@Bayesian Can we get some clarification on the resolution criteria on this?

@Phill I feel like this simply wouldn't fly. I acknowledge that it's only a stone throw's away from overturning Roe v. Wade, but pro-lifers are at least able to feign moral superiority on that issue (albeit only due to lacking in moral nuance). On gay marriage, I feel like a significantly smaller percentage of the electorate is going to be willing to take away people's rights simply because they find same-sex couples kind of icky. Contrary to what the religious far right might believe, respecting gay people is not some small niche of wokeism. And that's to say nothing of the votes that would flip due to being personally affected.

Moreover, I don't think Trump is a huge closet homophobe, and I suspect he probably doesn't want to be regarded as one, either.

@NBAP I agree, I don't think Trump cares at all, 71% of Americans are pro same-sex marriages, but we said all this a couple of years ago about abortion. I put it in there specifically because Thomas and Alito talked about revisiting Obergefell: https://time.com/6899864/same-sex-marriage-supreme-court-biden-trump

Nice market, hope we can have some laughs after this night.

I'll likely remake some of these into binary markets because they probably deserve more precision

(as can everyone else!)

@Bayesian For this, are we counting any year-long time span (oct 24, 2025 - oct 24, 2026), or within an annual year: ie (2025-2026)

@Quillist good question, i was thinking annual year bc that's much easier to measure presumably