Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
1,000
3.00@JussiVilleHeiskanen the obvious: observation of and thus renewed speculation on the translation of Trump's campaign platform to real policy actions
@JussiVilleHeiskanen People are suddenly realizing that "Trump is obviously just saying things, he won't actually do them" is as wrong now as it was during his first term.
@KevinBurke Should this be taken seriously? I'm not trying to throw shade, but I find it quite weird that this has been given a deadline instead of just being done today, maybe this is just a threat, who knows.
Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1 https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phrases-will-trump-sa
Trump Team Studies Month-By-Month Tariff Hikes Of 2%-5% - BBG
https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/1878922419693650055
@JonathanRay although it's possible that the gains from trump's deregulation completely dominate any losses due to tarriffs, even before factoring in the massive tailwind from AI
Tariffs will make our country wealthy again (restore 1890’s levels of prosperity to our great country)
@KevinBurke Do you genuinely believe that the US was wealthier and more prosperous in the 1890s? The data seems to disagree, at least for the world overall
@KevinBurke lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of wealth of nation, that's just total tax revenue. If you cut Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid/ and 3/4 of Military Funding, you could maybe fund the government with a decent amount of tariffs.
Sold my position until I can better model what scenarios result in what weighted average tariff - as well as their respective probabilities - within the first year, but I'm fairly confident (for now) in saying that this should be around 40%.
In the first year, it's highly likely Trump will introduce the same tariffs he introduced during the first year of his first administration but there's a good incentive to not go "overboard" and introduce some of the more extreme measures he talked about on his election campaign trail - especially during the first year where many are expecting the US economy to achieve its widely expected "soft landing".
Of course, there will be those that may call this out - voters and those within the GOP - but Trump can easily introduce measures that he didn't introduce during his first admin without exceeding 6% and he can furthermore hedge against this by leveraging the threat of tariffs, reneging on trade agreements etc., to obtain concessions out of other nations.
Open to discussion and scrutiny!
Trump seems determined to antagonize every single other country: Trump threatens to try and regain control of Panama Canal.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 It's the imperial USA. The only thing it requires from other countries is compliance.