Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
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3.00@GazDownright This comment says it's still a ways off from the target for this market:
https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first#mis7ditca09
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Thanks, yeah, I got that off of a quick GPT search myself, but want to sus out if there are some experts in the room.
@Gabrielle there might be some more up-to-date data, but https://ustr.gov/countries-regions says China made up 16.5% of imports in 2022. A 10% tariff on all of that only increases the indicator this market resolves off by about 1.65%, up to about 4.3%. Still needs a lot more to hit 6%.
@cthor Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.
@cthor and that is before you account for the producers in China paying part of the tariff in the form of currency valuation changes (CNY down ~2% this year) or in price reductions to stay competitive. The mfg I work for has been getting out of China anyway for the intermediate goods we buy from there (going mainly to Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and India) because of the geopolitical risks.
@NicholasCharette73b6 The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.
@Marnix Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429
There has long been a question if Trump wants tariffs for their own sake or just as a bargaining chip. Last couple hours update me in the bargaining chip direction
@FergusArgyll But Trump said he wasn't using tariffs as a bargaining chip, and that there was nothing the countries could do to delay the tariffs. Did Trump lie? 😱
@MalachiteEagle I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so with Canada because a lot of trade goes both directions with auto manufacturing taking part on both sides of the border. These tariffs are going to be horrible for the auto companies' bottom lines. Maybe in the long run they bring the manufacturing back to the US at high cost, but they might go bankrupt first, and auto prices are likely going to spike.