Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
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@MalachiteEagle for one glorious moment I thought Trump was himself tweeting pictures from Peep Show
A lot of movement in this market but less in mine: https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2
leaving this here in case anyone wants to stat arb
The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 also worth noting that doesn't seem to include the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, or the elimination of section 301 exclusions
@TimothyJohnson5c16 close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.
It seems like the tariffs are probably going to go forward
@MalachiteEagle does it also mean they will drop tariffs for those that don't charge nearly any tariffs?
@MalachiteEagle I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax on American companies, both are 'unfair' in that the US doesn't have a similar tax).
But from the perspective of the countries with a VAT, it's very different (why should US companies not pay taxes that local companies pay?) So their response will probably be very different.
@Shai well no, that doesn't make any sense. There is no perspective from which VAT is "unfair" to US companies. It's just bullshit 🤣
@MalachiteEagle It's unfair because a foreign company selling in the US will not face a VAT. That's what I mean by 'from the US perspective'.
@Shai The simplest way to see why a VAT isn’t “unfair” is to remember that it’s just a domestic consumption tax charged on all goods sold within a country, whether they come from a local producer or a foreign one. That means if a U.S. company wants to sell in a country with a VAT, it has to add the same VAT that domestic businesses do; it’s not like a special penalty aimed at foreign sellers, the way an actual tariff would be. Also, even though the U.S. doesn’t have a nationwide VAT, it has its own taxes, so this isn’t about one side “not paying its share.”
@Shai It doesn't matter what the US uses as a 'justification' for tariffs. If they raise tariffs on other countries, they will get hit back by reciprocal tariffs. This is why trade wars are stupid.
@Shai so no, the "from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff" isn't real, it's just echo chamber lies.
-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025)
@skibidist none of the people in this thread could define liberalism even if it bashed them over the head 😂
ah well
@MalachiteEagle i'd start by stating it was a further development/evolution from mercantilism, but my memory may be faulty
@MalachiteEagle and before Adam Smith, Anders Chydenius in Finland laid much of the ground work, but is rarely credited because his works for long weren't widely translated
@Shai But they don't make it harder for American companies to compete in foreign markets. Pretty hard to argue that VATs are unfair in any way.
@LukasTilmann Yeah VATs are more unfair to own populace than to foreign trade partners. Designed to trick people into thinking they are part of the price. Some polls show 3/4 of the general public are not aware of the VAT they pay on purchases.
Pretty cool that Trump fights it.
@skibidist right, but if you try and interfere with other sovereign nations internal taxation systems they will justifiably retaliate
@skibidist can't find the study you're referring to so I'm not entirely confident you didn't make this up. But either way, consumers pay the listed price, I don't see what's unfair if they don't bother to learn how the tax system influences prices. And it's certainly not up to Donald Trump to solve this for foreign consumers. Which isn't what he thinks he's doing, anyways, this is just obvious cope from you.
@skibidist labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes.
If Trump wants to fight against consumption taxes there are plenty of them in the US.