Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
1,000
3.00"The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), and the Tariff Act of 1930 all contribute to the executive’s tariff authority. Both Trump and Biden invoked the Trade Expansion Act and the Trade Act of 1974 to levy tariffs, and Trump also threatened to use the IEEPA during negotiations with Mexico but didn’t have to because Mexico gave in anyway. There’s nothing really stopping Trump from instituting arbitrarily high tariffs"
https://substack.com/home/post/p-147546117?selection=7859f237-3391-424f-84b3-162f4ddc78dc#:~:text=The%20Trade%20Expansion%20Act%20of%201962%20(Section%20232)%2C%20the%20Trade%20Act%20of%201974%20(Section%20301)%2C%20the%20International%20Emergency%20Economic%20Powers%20Act%20(IEEPA)%2C%20and%20the%20Tariff%20Act%20of%201930%20all%20contribute%20to%20the%20executive%E2%80%99s%20tariff%20authority
@ManifoldPolitics Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, even without any real money on the line. In a perfect world buying shares would be no different from any other kind of expression of opinion.
I thought he wants to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on American products