What are we even waiting for, Callum or St Louis Fed? Or is it either?

@Tripping only got Q1 recently

Related:

What's the NO position here? If we haven't already crossed 6% for this quarter we will shortly. Effective tariffs estimated to be >17% after the China deal: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-may-12-2025.

@ASomewhatRudeParakeet hard to know what the effective tariff will be after all the pauses, exemptions, de minimus, trade adjustments, and failure to collect.

@ASomewhatRudeParakeet 5D chess negotiating tactic zero tariffs next quarter new American century.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1919430441494274233

@Odoacre begin a process...

@Odoacre more tariffs more tariffs more tariffs

Welcome to tariffs

This is tariffs

Welcome

This is tariffs

Welcome to tariffs

You can do anything at tariffs, Anything at all. The only limit is yourself.

Welcome to tariffs

Welcome to tariffs

This is tariffs

Welcome to tariffs

This is tariffs, Welcome. Yes, this is tariffs

This is tariffs and welcome to you who has come to tariffs.

Anything is possible at tariffs. You can do Anything at tariffs

The infinite is possible at tariffs

The unattainable is unknown at tariffs

Once again confused why this is at 90% and the Kalshi market is at 80%.

@bens Kalshi at 77%

I blame Marx

@MalachiteEagle this is art

We're at 245% tariff for China now! https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-ensures-national-security-and-economic-resilience-through-section-232-actions-on-processed-critical-minerals-and-derivative-products/

"On Liberation Day, President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all countries and individualized reciprocal higher tariffs on nations with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficits in order to level the playing field and protect America’s national security.

• More than 75 countries have already reached out to discuss new trade deals.

• As a result, the individualized higher tariffs are currently paused amid these discussions, except for China, which retaliated.

• China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions.  "

Has there ever been a time where tariffs were this high?

@SaiVazquez we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.

Are we including the forthcoming fees for docking at US ports as 'tariffs'? I expect not, but they are effectively the same thing, just on weight/size rather than cost.

@MartinRandall literally the barebones basics of tariffs: they are applied based on the value (not cost!) of the item or by the weight / size of the item; or sometimes both.

Revise your tariff forecasts accordingly!

It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%)

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-tariffs

@bens and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical

@bens possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likely to depress the market.

@cthor I highly doubt that. First of all, why not just hedge themselves within the stock market at better rates on futures or w/e. Second of all, there are far better markets on Kalshi to hedge the stock market (recession odds, S&P puts, etc). Thirdly, why wouldn't people who are long just hedge the other way?

@bens perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to discount rates, whereas manifold has loans to address that

@cthor I don't think that's the main reason. Kalshi also pays interest (I think 4%) on people's positions.

@cthor I mean, the resolution is very likely <3 months away, and Kalshi pays 3.75% interest.

@bens i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order strategies.