Trump impose large tariffs in first year?
1.6k
4.1kṀ1.6m
2026
88%
chance

Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.

Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.

If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.

If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.

See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e

Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum  

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bought Ṁ1,250 YES

Welcome to tariffs

This is tariffs

Welcome

This is tariffs

Welcome to tariffs

You can do anything at tariffs, Anything at all. The only limit is yourself.

Welcome to tariffs

Welcome to tariffs

This is tariffs

Welcome to tariffs

This is tariffs, Welcome. Yes, this is tariffs

This is tariffs and welcome to you who has come to tariffs.

Anything is possible at tariffs. You can do Anything at tariffs

The infinite is possible at tariffs

The unattainable is unknown at tariffs

Once again confused why this is at 90% and the Kalshi market is at 80%.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@bens Kalshi at 77%

I blame Marx

bought Ṁ50 NO

@MalachiteEagle this is art

We're at 245% tariff for China now! https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-ensures-national-security-and-economic-resilience-through-section-232-actions-on-processed-critical-minerals-and-derivative-products/

"On Liberation Day, President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all countries and individualized reciprocal higher tariffs on nations with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficits in order to level the playing field and protect America’s national security.

  • More than 75 countries have already reached out to discuss new trade deals.

  • As a result, the individualized higher tariffs are currently paused amid these discussions, except for China, which retaliated.

  • China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions.  "

Has there ever been a time where tariffs were this high?

@SaiVazquez we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.

Are we including the forthcoming fees for docking at US ports as 'tariffs'? I expect not, but they are effectively the same thing, just on weight/size rather than cost.

@MartinRandall literally the barebones basics of tariffs: they are applied based on the value (not cost!) of the item or by the weight / size of the item; or sometimes both.

Revise your tariff forecasts accordingly!

It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%)

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-tariffs

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 87% order

@bens and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical

@bens possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likely to depress the market.

@cthor I highly doubt that. First of all, why not just hedge themselves within the stock market at better rates on futures or w/e. Second of all, there are far better markets on Kalshi to hedge the stock market (recession odds, S&P puts, etc). Thirdly, why wouldn't people who are long just hedge the other way?

@bens perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to discount rates, whereas manifold has loans to address that

@cthor I don't think that's the main reason. Kalshi also pays interest (I think 4%) on people's positions.

@cthor I mean, the resolution is very likely <3 months away, and Kalshi pays 3.75% interest.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@bens i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order strategies.

bought Ṁ200 YES

What are we waiting for here exactly? For a Callum Williams tweet? For FRED to update?

@Tripping ya, it's based on FRED quarterly rates, so likely it will resolve at earliest after Q2.

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