Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
1,000People are also trading
@LyetKynes Being appealed. There are other sources of tariff-raising powers. Did it double the chance of tariffs staying under 6% this quarter?
@MartinRandall Kalshi 76% for the full year, Poly 71% for just Q1/Q2. Still some TACO going on here too.
@Joshua the thing is if the markets price in TACO, there is no reason to CO, except inflation and he can handwave that
The total U.S. average effective tariff rate is 17.8%
@TimothyJohnson5c16 are you suggesting that while 1:00-1:15 and 1:15-1:30 are quarters of an hour, 1:05-1:20 isn't? 😄
What's the NO position here? If we haven't already crossed 6% for this quarter we will shortly. Effective tariffs estimated to be >17% after the China deal: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-may-12-2025.
@ASomewhatRudeParakeet hard to know what the effective tariff will be after all the pauses, exemptions, de minimus, trade adjustments, and failure to collect.
