Will the Trump administration offer Elon Musk a decent return for the time, effort, and political capital that he spent on backing Donald Trump?
Resolves NO if in my best guess based on public or shareable info, it looks like Donald Trump did not repay Elon Musk's backing, actively undermined Musk, decided that he was on the outs with Musk without Musk having previously clearly acted against Trump, etcetera. Resolves YES if my subjective judgment is that Musk struck first, or Trump acted in good faith until the point of a mutual break. If Trump doesn't specifically act against Musk, but Musk receives little or nothing in exchange for backing Trump, resolves NO.
This would resolve NO if Musk receives as little for backing Trump as Peter Thiel received for backing Trump in the 2016 election cycle. (E.g., Jim O'Neill was previously tipped to become FDA head, but did not become FDA head.) (I am open to hearing about how Trump repaid Thiel and I didn't hear about it yet.)
May resolve YES early if it's clear early in the Trump administration that Trump is already making a good-faith effort to fully repay Musk's backing, even if they end up on the outs later.
This isn't limited to selfish repayment; it counts if Musk obtains altruistic political desiderata.
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>May resolve YES early if it's clear early in the Trump administration that Trump is already making a good-faith effort to fully repay Musk's backing, even if they end up on the outs later.
... It's... Questionable now clearly. Given they may have split after the Wisconsin mess
@infiniteErgodicity I think he definitely met the criteria earlier, though. The Tesla sales pitch alone would probably have done it.
@EliezerYudkowsky Долг имеет красный цвет при выплате. 👺
mod edit (google translation): Debt is red when paid. 👺
@EliezerYudkowsky You could wait until DOGE changes regulations in a way that benefits Musk's companies. If that's happened already, I haven't heard of it
@IsaacLinn I am obviously self-interested as the largest YES holder, but please remember that the point of reference at the time of the market creation was the level of repayment Peter Thiel had (not) received in 2016.
I think the level of influence Musk has been granted by Trump is beyond all expectations people had on the election day, more than meeting the threshold suggested by the market description,
May resolve YES early if it's clear early in the Trump administration that Trump is already making a good-faith effort to fully repay Musk's backing, even if they end up on the outs later.
Looking at it from another angle, imagine a world where Trump gives Musk as much as he has between November 5th and today, but spread over the entire four years. Would it be enough to resolve the market? I think the answer is yes.
@IsaacLinn https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/25/business/musk-faa-starlink-contract/index.html
Maybe exactly the thing you are asking for hasn't happened yet, but things are happening
Exclusive: FDA staff reviewing Musk’s Neuralink were included in DOGE employee firings, sources say
close and resolve
@Marnix US says it will drop immigration case against SpaceX
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-says-it-will-drop-immigration-case-against-spacex-2025-02-21/
https://www.reuters.com/world/indias-modi-holds-meeting-with-billionaire-tesla-ceo-musk-2025-02-13/
I'm withdrawing my objection. I think YES is overdue over the past week.
If this isn't a YES I don't know what is.
@Predictor If it helps your conscience while driving the Swastikar you bought from Edolf Muskler
(of course it was, i'm making fun of this, while also genuinely thinking it may sway the resolution, because people treat those things as if they were real)
I'm pushing even harder for a yes resolution https://www.laborrelationsupdate.com/2025/02/breaking-nlrb-drops-opposition-to-spacexs-constitutionality-arguments/
I'm pushing even harder for a yes resolution
@Marnix another thing I can wholeheartedly agree with with the liberally-minded people. We'll end up on the same side yet
