Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?
415
1.5kṀ200k
resolved Feb 27
Resolved
YES

Will the Trump administration offer Elon Musk a decent return for the time, effort, and political capital that he spent on backing Donald Trump?

Resolves NO if in my best guess based on public or shareable info, it looks like Donald Trump did not repay Elon Musk's backing, actively undermined Musk, decided that he was on the outs with Musk without Musk having previously clearly acted against Trump, etcetera. Resolves YES if my subjective judgment is that Musk struck first, or Trump acted in good faith until the point of a mutual break. If Trump doesn't specifically act against Musk, but Musk receives little or nothing in exchange for backing Trump, resolves NO.

This would resolve NO if Musk receives as little for backing Trump as Peter Thiel received for backing Trump in the 2016 election cycle. (E.g., Jim O'Neill was previously tipped to become FDA head, but did not become FDA head.) (I am open to hearing about how Trump repaid Thiel and I didn't hear about it yet.)

May resolve YES early if it's clear early in the Trump administration that Trump is already making a good-faith effort to fully repay Musk's backing, even if they end up on the outs later.

This isn't limited to selfish repayment; it counts if Musk obtains altruistic political desiderata.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ8,195
2Ṁ5,362
3Ṁ1,423
4Ṁ1,002
5Ṁ935
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy