For the market to resolve as YES, both of these conditions must be fulfilled:
✅ Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination (“the Nomination”):
This criterion is met if Donald Trump is officially declared the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election by the Republican National Committee.
Donald Trump is not inaugurated:
This criterion is met if Donald Trump, after winning the Nomination, is not sworn in as President for any reason. This includes being replaced by another candidate, losing the general election, or any other circumstance that prevents his inauguration.
I may bet in this market. The close date may be extended if there’s any doubt about either criterion.
Update 2024-10-12 (PST): The market will not close before Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025). (AI summary of creator comment)
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