Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated?
Premium
27
Ṁ47kJan 7
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the market to resolve as YES, both of these conditions must be fulfilled:
✅ Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination (“the Nomination”):
This criterion is met if Donald Trump is officially declared the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election by the Republican National Committee.
Donald Trump is not inaugurated:
This criterion is met if Donald Trump, after winning the Nomination, is not sworn in as President for any reason. This includes being replaced by another candidate, losing the general election, or any other circumstance that prevents his inauguration.
I may bet in this market. The close date may be extended if there’s any doubt about either criterion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason before his inauguration?
17% chance
Will Trump concede before inauguration day, conditional on not winning the election?
14% chance
If Donald Trump wins the electoral college, will he NOT take office?
2% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election if he loses the 2024 election?
14% chance
Will Trump be disqualified AFTER being elected?
5% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?
11% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
5% chance
Will Trump Survive Until Inauguration?
97% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?
6% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2032 US presidential election?
4% chance