We are so back: https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-aid-israel-tiktok-congress-a8910452e623413bf1da1e491d1d94ba

Seeing these odds I suggest a lot of players consider a high probability of left bank(and more) frontline collapse. This is indeed possible though I may disagree with numbers. However, there are inconsistencies. Mykolaiv stands on the way to Odessa. That is, the former cannot be 76% whilst the latter 65%. It suggests public attention-based inefficiency. I also rely on the fact that both of them are on the right bank. Generally speaking, there are two ways of thinking about the scenarios . Whether Russian forces can do it and whether Russian forces will do it at a price they consider affordable. We see the technical stalemate related to their lack of ability to take the lands right now (short of little advances). Historically, the absolute stalemate is often indicated by attention shift of one of the sides. I do not see it now at all. This year is about to be all about elections so I do not see it coming (though such things come notoriously swift)

@1265 Odessa can be taken from the sea though?

@mariopasquato In theory, yes. In practice, that would be extremely difficult and costly. It would also be very hard to hold it without being able to connect it to the river.

DeepStateMAP 10/03/2024 (March 2024) update

Clockwise: Kharkiv(green except for 2-5% I guess), Luhansk(red), Donetsk(red), Zaporizhzhia(red except for some part), Kherson(red except for the right bank( west bank) ), Mykolaiv ( Kinsburn Peninsula part - red). The map a year ago :

You can look at the frontline dynamics here - https://deepstatemap.live/#6/49.438/32.053. (Roll the date at the corner)

A little note. It seems like % of occupied territories in Donetsk region is smaller than in Zaporizhzhia.

I've added Odessa, given Putin's comments about it (the city, not the oblast) being Russian:
https://tass.com/politics/1721001

I put up limit orders at 60% for Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv if anyone is interested

@AlexandreK You keep betting Kharkiv down pretty consistently, I'm wondering why you think Russia is going to end up with (at least half of) it? My rationale in betting it up is that Russia hasn't even annexed Kharkiv, so they probably wouldn't be looking for Ukraine to give it up in a peace settlement. I would be interested to hear your opinion though.

@Arky I think at this point it has become extremely difficult to reach a peaceful settlement (for various political reasons), so I'd expect Russia to force it upon Ukraine by seizing more and more territory until Kiev (assuming it's not taken) decides to give in, so as to avoid losing even more, perhaps everything (unless of course Russia just takes it all). And I don't expect Russia would like to withdraw from any seized territory, or at least not territory this valuable. Plus, Putin has made it pretty clear that he deems large swaths of Ukraine to be Russian land, including this oblast. It also happens to be on the border with Russia, with its main city within 25 km of the border, on a major highway too. It's quite vulnerable.

I'm of course far from certain this will happen, but my guess is more or less 50-50 at the moment. So, when the odds get higher than this, it seems like an attractive bet.

@AlexandreK To me, it seems quite clear that the big question is not whether Russia would like to occupy Kharkiv oblast (it tried to at the very start of the invasion), but whether it can.

Over the past year and a half, Russia has not really made any significant territorial gains. This year, it might go a bit better for them - but I don't think it will be that much better, especially since Ukraine had plenty of time to fortify by now.

You can also compare this to /SmithJon/will-ukraine-lose-the-donbas-region , which I think is still overpriced...

@PS I don't necessarily think it will happen this year.

@PS

since Ukraine had plenty of time to fortify

Yet they lost the most fortified area with a certain bit of panic, haven't they?

Faster territory gains for Russia could mean more people lost due to other strategy, and possibly need to use "morally unacceptable" weapons.

@AnT If you're talking about Avdiivka, then yes, Ukraine has lost it. But isn't it a loss of about a dozen of square miles within two years?

@PS The area's a bit larger than this, but it's not about its size, it's about what it contains (contained), and where it is.

Some of these are cities and oblasts, which is it referring to? I'm assuming the city

@NathanScott All of these are referring to Oblasts (regions). I will clarify.

Added Mykolaiv, since Russia currently controls part of it (the Kinburn Peninsula).

This is a great market

Added Chernihiv, since it's between Kiev and Sumy, and on the border with Russia. It might make sense to add a few more.