Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
107
617
1.8k
2030
27%
chance

Resolves NO if Ukraine or NATO do not exist by then. Only full membership counts, no "partnerships" or similar.

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What if the country splits into two or more parts and one joins NATO but the other does not?

@mariopasquato I think that would probs count as Ukraine "not exist[ing]" anymore? But idk

predicts NO

@twink_joan_didion if one part calls itself Ukraine and the other part does not (and by extension the 'Ukraine' part takes on the international rights and obligations of the current Ukrainian state), then it would be fair to say to say it still exists, even if its territory is substantially reduced

@JoshuaWilkes Compare with Taiwan/China though

predicts NO

@mariopasquato PRC didn't assume the obligations of ROC, and both sides claimed to be 'the real China'. It's definitely the case that countries can divide in ways that would be messy for Manifold questions, but equally, there can be simpler splits that allow continuation

predicts YES

@mariopasquato What if my grandmother had wheels, she would be a bike?

@Mirek Yours for sure

predicts YES

@mariopasquato In case of breakup, whichever the United States recognizes as the legitimate successor of Ukraine counts.

@Richard96f0 Perfect!

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