Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
240
3.7k
2.4k
Dec 31
4%
chance

Same resolution criteria as this Metaculus question, extended until the end of 2024: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/

Resolves YES if the Metaculus question resolves YES regardless of any arguments. If it happens in 2024, I'll do my best to judge according to the resolution criteria, giving priority to ISW as a source if it's still active and using whatever source Metaculus uses as its main replacement if it isn't. If there's a corresponding Metaculus question with the exact same criteria for 2024, I'll simply resolve in the same way as that one. Since this seems objective enough, I will bet on this market.

Update: There is now a Metaculus question with the same criteria as the original one for this year, so this market's resolution will be fully determined by that question's resolution: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20533/crimea-russia-land-bridge-severed-by-2025/

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predicts NO

“'Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting... '

Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia...

... aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation.

In Politico, December 27 [https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211]

predicts NO

@NamesAreHard thanks for the 600M profit I got here just buy copying your position on the market you were most invested in ❤

predicts NO

@JustifieduseofFallibilism copy trading @NamesAreHard is generally a good idea. I would almost consider just copy trading his large positions

predicts YES

@MarcusAbramovitch This is the best advice I have seen on how to win Manifold.

predicts YES

@MarcusAbramovitch true. lost every time i bet against him. (including this market)

predicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Maybe not as good a strategy these days because I'm half-retired now and betting pretty much on sports only. I'm still following the Ukraine markets a little bit but haven't really checked on my other positions in months. I really appreciate your confidence in me, though!

bought Ṁ0 of NO

This is currently 25 percent on Metaculus.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@BTE wrong date

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Interesting. I just clicked the link in the question. Not my question though. @NamesAreHard ?

Edit: I see now that there is not Metaculus question for the end of 2024.

predicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch You don’t miss much, huh?

sold Ṁ86 of NO

I'm bored today waiting for stupid shit. So I'm on my phone

predicts NO

@BTE Yeah, just to confirm, the idea of this market is to extend that Metaculus question with one year until the end of 2024. We also have its equivalent here on Manifold (linked in related) and that one is at 35% at the moment.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

Cutting off the enemy's line of retreat could backfire.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

if they wanted to blow up the whole thing with a cruise missile they would have already done it.

predicts NO

@JonathanRay The market is not about the Kerch bridge connecting Russia and Crimea but the land "bridge" over the occupied territories in Southern Ukraine, please check the resolution criteria in the linked Metaculus question.

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