Same resolution criteria as this Metaculus question, extended until the end of 2024: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/

Resolves YES if the Metaculus question resolves YES regardless of any arguments. If it happens in 2024, I'll do my best to judge according to the resolution criteria, giving priority to ISW as a source if it's still active and using whatever source Metaculus uses as its main replacement if it isn't. If there's a corresponding Metaculus question with the exact same criteria for 2024, I'll simply resolve in the same way as that one. Since this seems objective enough, I will bet on this market.

Update: There is now a Metaculus question with the same criteria as the original one for this year, so this market's resolution will be fully determined by that question's resolution: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20533/crimea-russia-land-bridge-severed-by-2025/