Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before April 1, 2024? (This includes the rest of December 2023.) This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of linked markets, especially the earlier ones:
1,000
3.00@MatthewSmith615a I don't think so. I see at as similar to Bakhmut - it might be tactically important, but not strategically, and it's not much territory.
From the description:
"Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains)."
@42irrationalist That's right. Also, there were some discussions of particular cases in previous markets with the same question, such as https://manifold.markets/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-3a82fb352136
I don't think I can give a hard border for the area that has to be conquered, but feel free to ask about anything you have in mind.