https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-fighting-10000-russian-troops-kursk-region-ukrainian-commander-says-2025-06-22/

The end of the war is a broad timeframe if the past is any indicator. Although, Ukraine currently holds some small parcels of land in Russia, there is no reason to believe they will capture and hold any territory outside the original boundaries. This assumes that this conflict is settled and the calculation is based on post war allotments rather than areas held.

This includes kursk right?

@MalachiteEagle this includes Kursk right?

SWRight.jpg

@ICRainbow

A Ukrainian unit captured the Gagarin mine’s spoil tip near the Pivdenne settlement on Horlivka’s outskirts. Besides being a strategically advantageous position, it also holds symbolic value — it's now the only piece of land not controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces before the full-scale war but liberated after its start.

Source: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/11/22/a-russian-winter-offensive

Do offshore oil platforms count as territory?

@JeffreyHeninger I think control would suppose an active presence.

If the war ends through some kind of agreement, will this market resolve based on the state of things at the time the agreement was signed, or based on the content of the agreement?

Actually, I feel this market is extremely under-specified in general. A market as complicated as this should really have clear resolution criteria in the description!

It will. And at some point Putin will also think so. That is why I think he is likely to use nukes as a last resort.

https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine?r=S29uZ29MYW5kd2Fsa2Vy

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

15% chance. Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm

I'm curious what territory you guys imagine Ukraine will end up with? (especially if it's the 2022 borders as indicated below.) like random pockets of southern Russia?

@twink_joan_didion Pieces of Crimea. The creator said the war began in 2022 for purposes of this question.

@twink_joan_didion I’m thinking of the territory mentioned in this

Definitely not saying this should cause resolution, but this is why I’m betting up the market (and also the whole Wagner thing)

For the purposes of this question, did the war start in 2014 or 2022?

@brp 2022

What happens if the war hasn't ended by the close date?

@TomShlomi I will extend the market (and my other markets on the end of the war) as necessary.

@njmkw Why not just set all the close dates to 2100 or something like that?

@njmkw But how do you define the end of the war?

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition