Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
99
1.1k
1k
2025
59%
chance

Before February 24th 2022, the administration of the Donbas region was split between the LPR, the DPR, and Ukraine. Part of the announced goals of the Russian invasion is to gain control of the entire region. This market resolves to yes if 1) a peace treaty is signed between Ukraine and Russia 2) the treaty requires Ukraine to relinquish control over the entire Donbas region. Picture for reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas#/media/File:Map_of_Donbas_region.svg

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

@Selueen Why are you bullish on this one?

@PS on priors mostly, as there's lack of compelling evidence in favour of Ukraine winninig the war.

If there's a peace deal, they will have to give up these territories, if there is no peace deal it's a frozen comflict for years to come if not for decades.

Maybe I will lose on technicalities (Ukraine keeps some small part of the region in the end), but that's fine.

If you have a strong reason to expect better results for Ukraine, I'd be happy to hear it.

But in general, most Ukraine related markets are by default highly overvaluing the best outcomes for Ukraine, which then tend not to happen.

Everyime I bet on these markets I hope to be wrong, and yet I'm usually not.

One exception, and at the same time a prediction I got really wrong was the counteroffensive last summer, I did not want to believe they would go for it. I thought it would be a huge waste, a terrible way to burn their resources for virtually no gain, losing so many lives in the process. I think it's fair to say that this part I got right. My error was that I expected Ukraine's officials to care.

bought Ṁ150 NO from 58% to 44%

@Selueen I suspect they do care, but assessed that if they didn't attempt it, they'd lose US support, effectively dooming them to lose the war outright.

bought Ṁ150 NO

@Selueen I don't disagree with you in general, but I'm not at all sure a peace deal would see Ukraine give up territories it controls. We are talking about relatively large areas which it has defended since 2014, and which should be heavily fortified by now; and Russia hasn't really occupied much new territory since 2022. So, while I expect that Ukraine will lose the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, I don't really see them losing the complete region.

@Selueen

Maybe I will lose on technicalities (Ukraine keeps some small part of the region in the end), but that's fine.

I'm not sure whether it's what you mean, but I think Ukraine currently controls about 5,000 square miles in Donetsk oblast, including two major cities...

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Wondering why this is so high. A positive resolution would require Ukraine to hand over territories which Russia doesn't control and never has, such as the cities Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. So, either Russia has to make major territorial gains in a heavily fortified region, or Ukraine has to hand over without a fight a region which it has spent ten years defending successfully...

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@PS I mean: a market asking if Ukraine will accept limited territorial losses (such as a return to the pre-2022 status) is at 57% currently.

https://manifold.markets/AntonT/will-ukrainian-government-accept-a

@WillWilson @ahalekelly i will extend the close date, thanks for bringing that to my attention, I'll update the description

predicts YES

I’m also curious about the answer to Adrian’s question. It makes a huge difference as to the probability.

predicts NO

If there's no peace treaty by the close date, will you extend the close date, resolve No, or resolve N/A? The title implies that you will wait until the war ends to resolve but the description contradicts that.