SpaceX Starship 🚀

This dashboard is focused on the next test launch of the Starship rocket.

When will the 4th Starship launch happen?

66%

May 2024 or earlier

95%

June 2024 or earlier

98%

July 2024 or earlier

98.5%

August 2024 or earlier

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#Space exploration

#Commercial spaceflight

How long after Starship IFT-3 will the FAA grant a launch license for IFT-4

12%

Within 2 months (May 14th)

70%

Within 2 months and 1 week (May 21st)

73%

Within 2 months and 2 weeks (May 28th)

84%

Within 3 months (June 14th)

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#Starship Launch Party

When will there be a 4th Starship launch?

1%

2024-05-10

3%

2024-05-15

11%

2024-05-20

37%

2024-05-25

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#Starship Launch Party

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

When will there be a 4th Starship Launch?

0.3%

January

0.4%

February

0.4%

March

1.1%

April

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#Starship Launch Party

Will Starship launch in May 202460% chance

#Starship Launch Party

Which months of 2024 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?

59%

May

42%

June

41%

July

40%

August

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How long will the next Starship flight (after Mar. '24) last?

0.7%

<1 minute

2%

1 - 4 minutes

8%

4 - 15 minutes

45%

15 minutes - 1 hour

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Will SpaceX achieve a mishap-free Starship flight in 2024?68% chance

#Starship Launch Party

When will the fourth Starship Test Flight End? [resolves to one only]

2%

Explode on launchpad

3%

Explode after clearing launch tower

5%

Explode on or after max Q

7%

Explode on or after stage separation

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#New Year's Resolutions 2024

Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024?57% chance

How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2024?

5%

2 times or less

60%

3 or 4

28%

5 or 6

7%

7 or more

#Everyday Astronaut Predictions

Will there be X or more Starship–SuperHeavy launches in 2024?

98%

2

95%

3

77%

4

49%

5

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How many Starship launches will there be in 2024?

7%

0-2

27%

1-3

57%

2-4

60%

3-5

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#Commercial spaceflight

Vox Prediction 2024: Starship will complete a launch without either stage exploding72% chance

When will Starship first launch with useful payload?

4%

Before 2024-06-01

18%

Before 2024-07-01

26%

Before 2024-08-01

60%

Before 2024-09-01

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Will SpaceX deploy any Starlink satellites using Starship in 2024?75% chance

#Starship Launch Party

Will IFT-4 carry Starlink satellites?4% chance

Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the fourth quarter of 2024?88% chance

#Starship Launch Party

Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2024.5% chance

When will Starship reach orbit?

2%

May 2024 or earlier

9%

June 2024 or earlier

44%

July 2024 or earlier

58%

August 2024 or earlier

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#Space exploration

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