When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
14
700แน€5884
2030
January 5, 2027
1%
2025 May-Aug
1%
2025 Sep-Dec
24%
2026 Jan-Jun
35%
2026 Jul-Dec
31%
2027
5%
2028
3%
2029

At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.

This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.

Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.

Clarifications:

  • Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count

  • The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment

  • As with all my questions, i might bet on this.

  • (New clarification 2025 Aug 27) Only operational machines count as satellites, not mass simulators, dummies, debris, or anything inert.

  • Update 2025-08-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only operational satellites count. Mass simulators, dummy payloads, debris, and other inert objects do not qualify as satellites for resolution.

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Okay after discussion with 2 traders I have edited the text of the final option to include years beyond 2009. I apologize for the subtle midcourse correction.

bought แน€25 NO

Could you maybe replace 2029 by "2029 or later/never"? Then I can also bet on it happening much later than expected.

@FlorisvanDoorn I like this idea, but I'm vague on whether it could mess up the numeric format...

@CommanderZander with this dependant type I think you cannot create new options and if it didnt happen until after 2029 it either it isnt clear how to resolve or the most obvious choice is 2029 as the nearest. So I think you should edit 2029 as suggested.

Added a clarification, I forgot satellite is technically a very broad term. Should have spotted that originally, excuse me.

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