When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
12
700Ṁ20112030
April 6, 2026
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
15%
2025 May-Aug
34%
2025 Sep-Dec
23%
2026 Jan-Jun
15%
2026 Jul-Dec
11%
2027
1.1%
2028
1.1%
2029
At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.
This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.
Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.
Clarifications:
Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count
The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment
As with all my questions, i might bet on this.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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