Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are planning to send demo landers to the moon, before their crewed missions for Artemis III and V respectively.
Even before the official uncrewed demo landing Blue Origin is planning to send two pathfinder landers to the moon, in 2024 and 2025.
These BO landers might not actually look like the Artemis mission lander. They will likely be the small "Blue Moon" landers, not the lander that got awarded the Appendix P contract. Nevertheless, these landers count for the purposes of this market.
Starship's uncrewed demo landing is scheduled for 2024, according to NASA's timeline.
Will Starship land on the moon before a Blue Origin lander does?
The landing doesn't have to be successful, as long as it physically hits the moon.
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@JoshuaWilkes I think it has a chance! That's what the market is for :D
Hard to judge the correct percentage though. We don't have much info on Blue Origin's progress, and they'll probably want to launch it on New Glenn...
Just in case somebody missed this: May 19, 2023 RELEASE 23-056 NASA Selects Blue Origin as Second Artemis Lunar Lander Provider
@MayMeta Thanks, yeah, I made this market in response to that. Here's the source selection statement with more info on the decision, which mentions BO's plan to land a privately funded lander on the moon in 2024 and 2025 to get experience.