By when will first Starship be reused? | Manifold

By when will first Starship be reused?

47

Ṁ1.8kṀ14k

2031

77%

December 2027 or earlier

62%

June 2027 or earlier

42%

March 2027 or earlier

26%

December 2026 or Earlier

6%

November 2026

1.3%

Never

1%

June 2026 or Earlier

Resolves to Never if No Starship is Reused by 2030, unless there are concrete plans indicating plans to do so in very near future(~2 years), in which case the market could be extended with additional options.

Starship Reusability means both ship and booster have to be successfully flown once before.

Does not count if only one of them is reused.

Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Answers without "or earlier" include that month (i.e., the named month is included in the resolution criteria).

Market context

Starship Launch Party

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bought Ṁ10 NO

do the answers without "or earlier" include that month?

@dp9000 Yes, same criteria for them all

filled a Ṁ80 YES at 20% order

My optimism has lost me a lot of Mana, hoping to make it back in trader bonuses.

@notarealuser maybe time for some new options?

@JoshuaWilkes Done! Lmk if u need more granularity

bought Ṁ399 NO

@notarealuser Please can Dec 2024 resolve no?

bought Ṁ125 NO

@notarealuser Please can March 2025 resolve no?

bought Ṁ391 NO

@notarealuser Please can June 2025 resolve no?

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new options added

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bet on when starship will be reused

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When will Starship first launch with useful payload?

When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?

When will Starship complete an orbit?

When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?

When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?

When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?

Which Starship will be the first to be caught?

When will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?

When will Starship first dock to a non-Starship spacecraft?

Related questions

When will Starship first launch with useful payload?

When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?

When will Starship complete an orbit?

When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?

When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?

When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?

Which Starship will be the first to be caught?

When will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?

When will Starship first dock to a non-Starship spacecraft?