When will Starship flight 12 happen?
18
1kṀ9049
2027
February 4, 2026
0.8%
Before October 2025
11%
Before December 2025
53%
Before February 2026
89%
Before April 2026
95%
Before June 2026
97%
Before August 2026
99%
Before October 2026
99%
Before December 2026

Day of the 12th test flight of the Starship rocket. Let's try Manifold's date question format for this one.

Even if it explodes immediately after liftoff, that still counts for this question.

Info about past tests:

Flight 7 was 2025-01-16

Flight 8 was 2025-03-06

Flight 9 was 2025-05-27

Flight 10 - see https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-10-happen

Flight 11 - see https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-11-happen

I sometimes bet on my own questions.

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Will it be possible to add other intermediate dates to this question? I.e. "Before January" would be useful right now.

@OlegEterevsky I agree that would be cool, but i can't find any way to add answers to this question. I imagine doing that is not currently supported for the 'Date Independent' question type.

@CommanderZander "before August" can resolve.

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