When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
Basic
29
6.4k
2025
2%
Q2 2024 or earlier
3%
Q3 2024 or earlier
5%
Q4 2024 or earlier
16%
Q1 2025 or earlier
36%
Q2 2025 or earlier
47%
Q3 2025 or earlier
60%
Q4 2025 or earlier
85%
Q1 2026 or earlier
89%
Q2 2026 or earlier
91%
Q3 2026 or earlier
93%
Q4 2026 or earlier

In Artemis program SpaceX Starship is going to be used as Human Landing System (HLS), landing on the Moon with Artemis astronauts. When launched from land, Starship doesn't have enough propellant to get to Moon orbit, let alone Moon surface. To solve this problem, Starship will have to be refueled in orbit.

On Starship 3rd flight SpaceX plans to demonstrate propellant transfer within one spacecraft. So far there have been no announcement of the first attempt of propellant transfer between two ships.

For this market to resolve positively, the following should happen:

  1. One Starship has to be launched and reach orbit.

  2. The second Starship has to be launched while the first Starship is still in orbit.

  3. It has to be announced either ahead of time or after the fact that propellant transfer is planned or has been attempted.

The attempt doesn't have to be successful. It will count even if the second Starship fails to reach orbit.

If the market gets popular and the timeframe proves to be too short, I'll add extra options.

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"Right now, SpaceX is scheduled to attempt the first demonstration of a large-scale propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit next year."

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/nasa-exploration-chief-lays-out-next-steps-for-starship-development/

bought Ṁ60 Q1 2025 or earlier NO

2025 according to the current plan

(Source: meeting ongoing right now)

If SpaceX introduces a propellant depot that is not Starship derived (i.e. is launched as a payload by a Falcon rocket), then will this question be resolved when they try using it?

@DanHomerick The question explicitly mentions two Starships, so no.

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