The market will resolve to YES as soon as SpaceX Starship rocket reaches spaces and completes at least one full orbit. The market will resolve positively even if there is some sort of mishap or loss of communication, as long as it completes the orbit mostly in one piece.
Until this happens, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective period is over without a successful flight.
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I will not bet on this market.
Related questions
The upcoming third flight probably won't attempt a full orbit (see https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-starship-ift3-try-for-full-orb and https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-starshipsuperheavy-ift3-have-a), and the forth flight probably won't happen until April (see https://manifold.markets/Kire_/when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l).