When will Starship complete an orbit?
168
6.8kṀ130k
2026
0.7%
Before 2025-07-01
1%
Before 2025-08-01
5%
Before 2025-09-01
20%
Before 2025-10-01
40%
Before 2025-11-01
Resolved
NO
April 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
August 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
Before 2025-03-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2025-04-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2025-05-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2025-06-01
Resolved
NO
December 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
February 2024
Resolved
NO
January 2025 or earlier
Resolved
NO
July 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
June 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
March 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
May 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
November 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
October 2024 or earlier

The market will resolve to YES as soon as SpaceX Starship rocket reaches spaces and completes at least one full orbit. The market will resolve positively even if there is some sort of mishap or loss of communication, as long as it completes the orbit mostly in one piece.

Until this happens, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective period is over without a successful flight.

Related questions:

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-5-happen

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-wit

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-attempt-pr

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-or

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-dock-to-a

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-superh

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-starsh

I will not bet on this market.

Space
SpaceX
Rockets
Starship Launch Party
Space exploration
Commercial spaceflight
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
6% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
4% chance
When will Starship complete a full crewed mission from earth?
2033
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
2% chance
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
1/27/26
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy