119
1.6k
5.6k
2025
1%
May 2024 or earlier
2%
June 2024 or earlier
5%
July 2024 or earlier
25%
August 2024 or earlier
43%
September 2024 or earlier
89%
October 2024 or earlier

The market will resolve to YES as soon as SpaceX Starship rocket reaches spaces and completes at least one full orbit. The market will resolve positively even if there is some sort of mishap or loss of communication, as long as it completes the orbit mostly in one piece.

Until this happens, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective period is over without a successful flight.

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I will not bet on this market.

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March 2024 or earlier

I believe this can resolve NO btw

@Nat Right. Sorry I missed it.

If not attempting a full orbit but something goes wrong and as a result or consequent SpaceX action causes a full orbit to be completed before it is destroyed, does this resolve yes?

@ChristopherRandles Yes. As soon as it completes the full orbit, the market is resolved to YES.

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