The market will resolve to YES as soon as SpaceX Starship rocket reaches spaces and completes at least one full orbit. The market will resolve positively even if there is some sort of mishap or loss of communication, as long as it completes the orbit mostly in one piece.

Until this happens, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective period is over without a successful flight.

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I will not bet on this market.

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve YES, a full 360-degree orbit must be completed.

  • As an example, a flight that launches to the East and lands back at the same launch site would not count as a full orbit, because the Earth rotates underneath the spacecraft.