Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?

Standard

18

แน11222027

44%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

See also: /Alexf3a5/will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la

I will use the same criteria as that market: has a payload been delivered in a way that a customer would be happy with?

Get

1,000

and1.00

Sort by:

This market is roughly the halfway point for 500 launches by 2030, on an exponential growth market.

I think that makes it somewhat more likely than the linked market; if SpaceX hits 500 launches by 2030, I strongly expect it will look like an exponential path to get there. But it's also plausible they'll have a quick start and then slow down as they hit later sub-exponential constraints like launch sites, demand, regulation, and so on.

## Related questions

## Related questions

How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?

How many SpaceX Starship launches will there be in 2025?

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

23% chance

How many Starship launches will there be in 2024?

Will SpaceX perform at least 144 successful orbital launches in the year 2024?

7% chance

How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2024?

How many Spacex Starship launches will there be in 2024?

Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?

4% chance

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

49% chance

๐ Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful Launches In 2024?

12% chance