AI Companies

Ṁ7.8k

What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2023?

50%41%

OpenAI

30%1.4%

Midjourney

10%9%

Meta's AI lab

10%6%

Mistral

See 26 more answers

Ṁ7.8k

Ṁ1k

Will OpenAI release ChatGPT 5 before June 2024?

NO

Ṁ1k

Ṁ7.5k

OpenAI DevDay predictions

Resolved

YES

GPT-4 vision announced to be available via API

Resolved

YES

API access to DALLE-3 announced

Resolved

YES

Text to speech available via API

Resolved

YES

Full access to a model (weights, embeddings, etc) is announced (even if with a waitlist)

See 54 more answers

Ṁ7.5k

Ṁ1k

Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024?

YES

Ṁ1k

Ṁ5.5k

Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2023?

NO

Ṁ5.5k

Ṁ1.2k

Will DeepMind ship in 2023?

YES

Ṁ1.2k

Ṁ1.6k

Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?

YES

Ṁ1.6k

Ṁ24k

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?

NO

Ṁ24k

Ṁ150

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

NO

Ṁ150

Ṁ3.3k

Will the New York Times file a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements by December 31, 2023?

YES

Ṁ3.3k

Ṁ350

Will Meta release its generative AI as a consumer product in 2023?

N/A

Ṁ350

Ṁ570

Will Meta stop sharing LLM weights in 2024?

NO

Ṁ570

Ṁ1k

Will Inflection AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

NO

Ṁ1k

Ṁ1k

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

NO

Ṁ1k

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

Ṁ2.2k

Will Apple announce its own LLM by the end of 2023?

NO

Ṁ2.2k

Ṁ1k

Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?

YES

Ṁ1k

Ṁ1k

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

79% chance

Ṁ1k

Ṁ1k

Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?

3% chance

Ṁ1k

Ṁ1.8k

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

YES

Ṁ1.8k