AI Companies

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What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2023?
50%41%
OpenAI
30%1.4%
Midjourney
10%9%
Meta's AI lab
10%6%
Mistral
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Will OpenAI release ChatGPT 5 before June 2024?NO
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OpenAI DevDay predictions
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 vision announced to be available via API
Resolved
YES
API access to DALLE-3 announced
Resolved
YES
Text to speech available via API
Resolved
YES
Full access to a model (weights, embeddings, etc) is announced (even if with a waitlist)
See 54 more answers
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Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024?YES
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Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2023?NO
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Will DeepMind ship in 2023?YES
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Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?50% chance
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Premium
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?1% chance
Basic
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?16% chance
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Will the New York Times file a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements by December 31, 2023?YES
Basic
Will Meta release its generative AI as a consumer product in 2023?N/A
Basic
Will Meta stop sharing LLM weights in 2024?NO
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Will Inflection AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?NO
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Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?31% chance
xAI
xAI is an AI company with the mission of advancing scientific discovery and gaining a deeper understanding of our universe.
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Will Apple announce its own LLM by the end of 2023?NO
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Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?YES
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Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?75% chance
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Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?10% chance
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Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?YES
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