AI Companies

What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2023?

50%41%

OpenAI

30%1.4%

Midjourney

10%9%

Meta's AI lab

10%6%

Mistral

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Will OpenAI release ChatGPT 5 before June 2024?NO

OpenAI DevDay predictions

Resolved

YES

GPT-4 vision announced to be available via API

Resolved

YES

API access to DALLE-3 announced

Resolved

YES

Text to speech available via API

Resolved

YES

Full access to a model (weights, embeddings, etc) is announced (even if with a waitlist)

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Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024?86% chance

Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2023?NO

Will DeepMind ship in 2023?YES

Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?43% chance

Plus

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?55% chance

Mini

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?16% chance

Will the New York Times file a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements by December 31, 2023?YES

Mini

Will Meta release its generative AI as a consumer product in 2023?N/A

Mini

Will Meta stop sharing LLM weights in 2024?NO

Will Inflection AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?18% chance

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?51% chance

xAI is an AI company with the mission of advancing scientific discovery and gaining a deeper understanding of our universe. Our first product is Grok - a conversational AI.

Will Apple announce its own LLM by the end of 2023?NO

Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?63% chance

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?73% chance

Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?15% chance

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?37% chance