This question will resolve YES if any of the following are reported:

• Some unauthorized actor was able to breach an AI lab's network security.

  • For example, if an AI lab's model weights are exfiltrated.

• A capability improvement that an AI company was shared without authorization

  • For example, if an engineer is publicly accused of sharing secrets with another company.
    

A data breach that involves customer data, like ChatGPT bugs in 2023, will not trigger a YES resolution.

This market will resolve NO if, by Jan 1, 2025, there exist no public reports of a significant incident.

This is a near-identical market to Rob Wiblin's 2023 market here.