Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?
40
332
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2025
57%
chance

This question will resolve YES if any of the following are reported:

  • Some unauthorized actor was able to breach an AI lab's network security.

    • For example, if an AI lab's model weights are exfiltrated.

  • A capability improvement that an AI company was shared without authorization

    • For example, if an engineer is publicly accused of sharing secrets with another company.


A data breach that involves customer data, like ChatGPT bugs in 2023, will not trigger a YES resolution.

This market will resolve NO if, by Jan 1, 2025, there exist no public reports of a significant incident.

This is a near-identical market to Rob Wiblin's 2023 market here.

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Important question! I've curated it on https://theaidigest.org/timeline, it'd be nice to see more questions on lab infosec and harms from breaches

Partial weight stealing attacks (through API queries) do not count?

predicts YES

What if the organization is breached but no ai models/weights, etc are compromised? Stolen financial info or employee data perhaps?

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